Thursday, 29 November 2012

Player Projections

You'll notice a new page on the blog - Projections.   This doesn't look very pretty but you are free to rip it off and have a gander.   The projected point values are the same as on each team's Fantasy Page.

You'll notice also that I've included a couple of parameters from my model - these are % Share Team Shots and Model Goal Conversion.  I've also listed each player's actual goal conversion for comparison.    I have also included team averages for Shots on Target (SoT) and Shots in Box (SiB, a.k.a. Sin).  These averages are opponent adjusted and incorporate both home and away games together.  They don't tell the full story of what is underneath the bonnet of the model but are a strong indicator of overall attack strength.

These are really the key parameters which I use to make the projections and I've posted this info. for transparency, so that you may get a better understanding of how the projection model works, and that this may aid you in reading the information, plus you can help me in pointing out any errors or improvements.  

It should also be possible for you to use these basic parameters  to make you own projections. If you feel a team or player are performing above or below my values. you can adjust the projections up or down.  I would actually like to make these projections interactive so that you can tweak player or team parameters on the fly and have been looking into some online spreadsheets apps that may achieve this. 

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