Friday 30 November 2012

Buying Guide GW15

For GW15 - 20
I've updated/frigged the projections model to take account for the double gameweek in GW16 for Sunderland and Reading as well as Chelsea and Southampton's blank fixture the week after (Chelsea are playing in some kind of Super Cup).  This had the effect of excluding all of the latter two team's players except for some rotation options whilst introducing Sunderland and Reading players.

I've also added a Rotation Option for each position.  These are cheapish players who might not have the best 6 fxitures overall but have 3 good fixtures out of the 6.

Berbatov leads the overall points projections for the next 8 GW with 5 home games and potential captaincy in many of those games.  He suffered a price drop again this week so at £7.4m and 14% ownership I really see little reason not to own him.  One criticism I have of Fulham though is that they seem to struggle for goals against defensively minded opponents but are free-scoring against other attacking teams.  A quick look through their opponents over the next 8 however reveals the majority fall into the latter category.

From the big hitters it's Aguero and Van Persie who inevitably lead the way. The difference in  ownership and price though is stark.  Aguero is £11m and 7% owned compared to Van Persie's £13.7m and 36%.  Aguero has to be a top FPL target.  He's not quite lived up to the forecast lately but City are moving up through the gears. 

There are a few question marks over the long term starting positions of Petric and Lukaku so they don't get inclusionLe Fondre's recent performances mark him out as a potential budget option for Reading's DGW although buyer beware, he looks like a bit of a statistical anamoly due to only really playing three 90 minute games.

Top Overall Points
Berbatov, Van Persie, Aguero

Top Elite (>£9m)
Van Persie, Aguero, Suarez

Top Midpriced (£7.5-£9m)
Giroud, Defoe, Ba

Top Low Priced (£6-7.5m)
Berbatov, Fletcher,  Kone

Top Budget (<£6m)
Le Fondre, Cisse (QPR), Roberts (RDG)

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Giroud, Le Fondre, Hernandez

Top Rotation (<£6.5m and 3 best fixtures)
Long, Lambert,  Holt

A re-entry here for Santi Cazorla after a few trickisome fixtures are now out of the way and the absence of Mata and co. from Chelsea.   Fellaini grabs a place in the top 3 again after his return from suspension joining the omnipresent Bale.  Not much change elsewhere amongst the top of the price rangeLower down sees Damien Duff back in contentionn as well as Theo Walcott as an outstanding differential option if he can keep his place in the team and niggle-free.

Top Points Overall
Bale, Fellaini, Cazorla

Top Elite (>£8m)
Bale, Cazorla, Silva

Top Midprice (£6.5-8m)
Fellaini, Michu, Toure

Top Low Price (£5.5-6.5m)
Taarabt, Walters, Duff, 

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Gomez, Robson-Kanu

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Walcott, Gomez, Taarabt

Top Rotation (<£6.5m and 3 best fixtures) 
Lallana, Morrison, Walters
Baines is the notable casualty here.  Basically, the home game against Norwich was keeping him in it, and now that's out the way, clean sheets and attacking potential are much reduced.  In his place at the top are Glen Johnson, Zabaleta and Evra with team mates Enrique, Rafael and Clichy all close behind.  There really are plenty of options within the back lines of the league's best defences if you can hold your breath over rotation, whilst some very reliable options at Stoke and West Brom

Top Points Overall
Glen Johnson, Zabaleta, Evra

Top Elite (>£6m)

Johnson, Evra, Baines

Top Midprice (£5.5-6m)

Zabaleta, Enrique, Clichy

Top Low Price (£5-5.5m)

Gibbs/Sagna, Olsson, Shawcross

Top Budget (<£5m)

Shorey, Clark, Billy Jones

Top Differential (<5% owned)

Glen Johnson, Zabaleta, Nastasic

Top Rotation (<£5.5m Best 3 fixtures)
Shorey, Olsson, Cuellar