Friday, 2 November 2012

GW10 My Team and Transfers

My Team prior to any GW10 tinkering
Quick Health Warning:  Tinkering is bad for your health!

Above is my current squad. In blue are the forecast points for each player over the next 6 weeks. To the right of each row is the expected points per game over the 6 games, then the amount I paid for the player, and value that the projected points are worth to me, in FPL terms.  The final column (+/-) is the projected value / amount I paid.  If my model is accurate then Baines is well worth his money over the next 6GW.  

Marc Wilson is injured long-term so you can see his value is zero.  He has to go.  He represents the least value on my squad.  True, I could bench him forever, but that is not likely to be a long-term strategy for success.  My first transfer this week is Wilson to team mate Geoff Cameron.  Done.

I also have concerns in Taylor and Gibbs, and Demel (all possibly injured).  My immediate thought here is that I have to sort this out, but I am going to be optimistic and hope some of these players return in due course., and if they do, they still represent better value than some others on my team. After Wilson, I have identified three players who I am projecting to only offer my 75% of their value - Cazorla, Giroud and Ben Arfa.  

Stats aside, I have been itching to get rid of Ben Arfa for a while.  He, to me, is the classic overrated fantasy player.  I was also looking to move on Nolan now West Ham's fixtures have turned nasty, but seeing as he only cost me £6.3m he still represent good value.  Cazorla and Giroud offer me different problems.  I am surprised to see both of them offering such a poor forecast.  I was dead keen on these two a couple of weeks ago but Arsenal's struggles against Norwich and QPR have turned my model against them.

With my model I am able to evaluate different transfers and the impact they will have on my team, including the cost of taking a 4 point hit.  I evaluated a few transfers, with Cazorla or HBA to Gerrard (Mata injured otherwise he would be the one), or Giroud to Suarez being the best.  The latter transfer increases my team value the most and improves my point forecast despite the 4pt hit. So the deal is on the cards, although I will sleep on it.  Giroud out, Suarez in. May the spirit of Dixie Dean forgive me.  

Of course this will all have back-fired terribly by about 5pm on Saturday.  I have to have some courage in my convictions though and take a leap of faith with this and see where it gets me.  Wish me luck!

NEW TEAM:
GW10 squad after tinker

3 comments:

  1. Pretty interesting that you have gone with no MUN or MCI coverage.

    Suarez is a ballsy pick, I guess you just have to back your model in. Liverpool have a tremendous record against Newcastle at Anfield.

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  2. Newcastle have really easy run... HBA maybe over priced but you can't ignore the fixtures.
    transferring giroud makes sense think he will be seeing a lot more of the bench harder fixture will mean 451 with pod

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  3. Newcastle do have an easy run but HBA doesn't do enough for me. Sure, he got an assist today, and I will certainly keep for WHM next week, but after that I will take a closer look.

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