Thursday 22 November 2012

GW13 Buying Guide

I feel the need to freshen things up with this guide going forward.  What I've realised is that my Buying Guide now very close to what most people already know, and the player selections don't vary much from advice on other websites.  The Scout's WatchList has been almost identical in recent weeks.  This of course is very pleasing as my selections are based entirely on objective evidence (the stats) although I wouldn't be surprised if The Scout were doing something similar behind the scenes.    

I do though feel the Form and Forecast data in the tables for each position adds some value so won't be dispensing with the general format any time soon, just looking for ways to provide more.

I have added a new column to the data tables called Value/£.  It's projected points over the 6 week period divided by the player's cost (at prices today).  You'll notice the expensive options on a team do not present good value in relation to the cheaper players.  This is correct, and they always will.  The cheaper players offer you a short term potential due to fixtures whilst expensive players offer more long term value.  And of course, whilst you always need to be mindful of return on investment, the aim of the game is points and not money in the bank.  

However when players who offer both high points and value are identified they become really important assests to your team.  Right now Suarez, Aguero, Michu, Berbatov and Fellaini offer this in my opinion.  They just make sense, even with high ownership and especially without.

Anyway, on to this week's player picks in each position and by pricing category.  As usual the players are picked to score the most points overall in their next 6 fixtures.  This assumes they are playing in every game and may not be the optimum rotation or transfer strategy so do look at the data tables to identify trends and opportunities yourself.

One more thing.   Don't forget the double gameweek in GW16.  Sunderland defender's offer some potential.  

A slight reshuffle at the top of the pecking order this week with Aguero taking number one spot from Van Persie for overall points   Suarez remains the other best placed contender.   Despite what people are seeing as a tricky turn of fixtures for Fulham and Berbatov he remains my pick in the midprice category.  Fulham have shown they score at Utd and Arsenal already this season so games against Chelsea and Tottenham, whilst tricky for Fulham win should not deter interest in Berbatov. 

A first time entry in these selections, much to my surprise considering the number of goals he has already, is Jermain Defoe.  His inclusion is really on the back of two strong home fixtures against West Ham and Swansea.  Demba Ba holds on to his place in the midprice band due to his personal form rather than Newcastle's.  Oliver Giroud is unfortunate to just miss out by 1 pt on Defoe over the 6 fixtures.  If you think Defoe will have lost his starting place by the Swansea game they Giroud's your man.  

In the low budget departments, Lambert looks a safe pick and good value for the next 6, as does Kone.  Petric's gametime in the absence of Ruiz could see him in the goals, whilst Weimann's role up front for Villa is seeing him get plenty of shooting chances.

In the differential category it's afore mentioned Oliver Giroud who is the key player here, although special dispensation will be be made for Sergio Aguero, still just 7% owned and my top ranked player over the next 6.  If you think I remotely have an idea what I'm doing you should assess your squad for his inclusion sooner than later.

Top Points Overall 
Aguero, Van Persie, Suarez

Top Elite (>£9m)
Aguero, Van Persie, Suarez

Top Midprice (£7.5-9m) 
Berbatov, Ba Defoe/Giroud

Top Low Price (£6-7.5m)
Lambert, Crouch, Kone

Top Budget (<£6m)
Petric, Weimann, Di Santo

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Giroud, Petric, Kone, Aguero (7%)

Gareth Bale continues to offer the best point totals overall. He's a major goal threat for Tottenham. Hazard has moved just ahead of Mata in my rankings.  Despite the latters form the Belgain has been gradually upping his goal threat of recent weeks and was handed the striker's role in Chelsea's midweek loss at Juventus.   Fellaini's one match suspension sees him lose his place in the top points category to Swansea's Michu.  I stress that this is as a buy this week, not next week!

The midprice category is really quite barren.  Fellaini is actually projected third highest points in this bracket despite missing a gameApart from Michu and Fellaini there are there are better picks in the the upper and lower price brackets such as Sterling, Lallana and Morrison.

Top Points Overall
Bale, Hazard, Michu

Top Elite (>£8m)
Bale, Hazard, Mata

Top Midprice (£6.5-8m)
Michu, Nolan

Top Low Price (£5.5-6.5m)
Morrison, Lallana, Sterling

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Puncheon, Gera, Routledge

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Nasri, Hoilett, Lallana

Highlight here is that Leighton Baines has lost his place amongst the top three point scorers overall to McAuley although Baine's short term fixtures are better than the West Brom man.  Baines has suffered here mainly due to Everton's poor defensive form rather than his lack of attacking potential which, although slighltly down in the last 6 gameweeks compared to the first six, is still good, averaging 3-4 key passes per game.  

Selected in last week's team of the week  Enrique's form and position in the Liverpool needs close attention and would represent a great buy in anyone's book if can hold down his wing role.  Some interesting budget choices this week too.  Billy Jones is a cheap way into the Baggies solid defence.  Buying Guide regular Ciaran Clark is back in contention, and this time with some potential defensive returns on the table.

Top Points Overall
Evra, Rafael, McAuley/Olsson

Top Elite (>£6m)
Evra, Baines, Ivanovic

Top Midprice (£5.5-6m)
 McAuley, Enrique, Clichy/Kolarov

Top Low Price (£5-5.5m)
Olsson, Mertesacker, Huth

Top Budget (<£5m)
Fonte, Billy Jones, Clark

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Olsson, Glen Johnson, Enrique




  1. Which one would you pick out of these:
    Mata, Cazorla, Bale and Silva and in what order?

  2. 1. Bale, 2. Mata, 3. Silva, 4. Cazorla.
    I owned Bale and Caz atm. Wouldn't be in a rush to swap any for any other. Perhaps Silva for the differential potential. Hope this helps.