Tuesday 27 November 2012

GW14 Captain Rankings

I explained the F.SCORE distributions in the last week's captain rankings so take a look there for more explanation on what this represents.  Essentially the further the players distribution profile is to the right the more times they have hit a high F.SCORE this season. These mini-distributions are very revealing really and I am going to take a look at improving the forecast model with them.

That Van Persie has top spot this week by a good margin is no suprise to anyone I hope.  I was holding my breath last week with Man Utd vs. QPR and will have to do it again this week.  Oh boy.  The other United players being defenders gives you an idea of how I see West Ham's chance of a goal this week.  Benteke is an interesting candidate, currently 11th in FFScout's poll.  I can see goals for Aguero and co too.   

And Torres?  Why not.  If you take a closer look at his shooting stats you'll see they are good ~50% accuracy, 40% conversion -  he's just not getting the same amount of shooting chances as other strikers in the league. If Benitez alters the playstyle to feed the striker more then things could change.

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