GW14 Team Ratings
This week I am adding an additional set of ratings, the
six-week ratings. These ratings
represent the performance of team’s over the past six game weeks, calculated in
the same manner as the overall ratings.
Consider these more of a team form rating.
At some point, I would like to factor in team form into
overall rating. For now, they are
presented independently for your consideration.
Changes and Notes
this week:
Biggest Attack Gains
Sunderland +
9.65
Southampton +
7.16
Liverpool +
6.98
The top two are certainly not surprising as both were
excellent attacking this weekend.
Liverpool was shutout, but they still generated 9 shots on target and 3
Big Chances on the road. The Reds have
been playing superbly recently and probably deserve to be about 5 spots higher
on the table.
Biggest Defense Gains
Manchester City +
5.98
Fulham +
5.97
Everton +
5.77
The Chelsea – City snooze fest produced gains for both
defensive teams. City was especially
superb as Chelsea is an elite attack or at least was under RDM. Everton’s inclusion may be surprising, but
they allowed just 3 shots on target with no Big Chances allowed. This should have been a clean sheet.
Biggest Overall Gains
Liverpool +
11.89
Southampton +
8.47
Wigan +
5.24
As mentioned above, Liverpool has been playing
superbly. The other team who has been on
fire of late is the Saints. Once the
fixture run settled down they got their legs and have seen major improvements
on the defensive side of things.
Biggest Attack Losses
Chelsea -
6.14
Arsenal -
6.06
Stoke City -
5.16
Welcome to the Benitez Blues era! While it’s only one game against the best
team in the league, a repeat over the next couple will drive Hazard and Mata
owners to alternates. Arsenal was also
extremely disappointing as they have been numerous times this season. Is Walcott that important to their attack?
Biggest Defense Losses
Sunderland -
10.00
Reading -
8.98
Swansea City -
7.34
Sunderland allowed a cheap second goal and then opened up in
the second half, resulting in a ton of Big Chances for West Brom. Reading were terrible and, as noted above already,
Liverpool dominated Swansea.
Biggest Overall Losses
Swansea City -
11.50
Newcastle United -
10.02
Reading -
5.91
We’ve talked about Swansea already, and Newcastle too have seen a drop in the rankings, even though it may well be explained by a lengthy injury list.
Can you predict the goal scorer for Aston Villa VS Reading
ReplyDeleteGreat article SuperGrover. I have also developed my own model, which relies on a team's SOTin (SOT inside box) and SOTout (SOT outside box). Most of model's predictions seem to match yours closely, except for SWA vs WBA.
ReplyDeleteMy model is predicting SWA 1.72 - WBA 2.21. The difference in the predicted goals scored by West Brom is significant. I think my model punishes Swansea's defence heavily because they have conceded 4.8 SOTin/game at home, whereas the league home avg is 2.87/game. Also, West Brom's attack away (3.5 SOTin/game) is rated above average (2.89 SOTin/game).
How is your model's prediction of West Brom's goals so low?
@Anon - Data says Benteke but I have a feeling for Weimann. Of course it could be anyone!
ReplyDelete@Karan - Hi mate. I'm sure SG will comment when he's free, he's on US time.
@ Karan -
ReplyDeleteThe key factor at work here is the Brommies offense. It has been a bit better than "average" (see previous article for definition of average), but not by much. When you factor in the disadvantage of playing on the road, you get an expected goal output of a little less than league average. Swansea defense is not great, but at home, they should allow about the league average number of goals in all games. Add the two together and you get a bit below league average.
Another thing that might explain the difference is that I do not differentiate team performance based on home/road splits. I certainly do have a home advantage factor, but I don't look at individual team performance based upon where they played. In other words, I don't have a different defensive rating for Swansea at home. I have myriad reasons for doing this and that most certainly will impact ratings if yours does so.
A bit more on my last point...while Swansea has been pretty loose with shots allowed, they have been about average on Big Chances allowed. As my model factors SOT and Big Chances essentially equally, the combination of the two makes their defense not quite as bad as SOT alone (although, they are still 17th in the league in my defensive ratings).
ReplyDeleteHope that helps explain things.
Benteke it is!
ReplyDelete