Friday, 26 April 2013

GW35 Captain Rankings

 

If a computer was managing a team in Fantasy Premier League then it would captain Dzeko this weekend if it had thought he would play. Not many real-life FPL managers will be though.  Th red flags indicate a potential non-start.  It's satisfying for Bale owners to see him amongst the top picks despite an away game, Van Persie too, and the trio of Man City defenders is an indicator of how few away goals West Ham have scored this season (lowest in league, think it's 10).  

Nasri is another player who may well some transfer action and differential armband love come the weekend.



Thursday, 25 April 2013

FPL Total Transfers Per Week






The above chart shows the trend of transfers in Fantasy Premier League each week through the season and up to GW34.  The absolute numbers are not exact as it's calculated from each player's net transfers in and out rather than each manger's transfers made, but it's close and relatively accurate.

You can see a big peak of activity in the first 4-5 weeks of the season until around GW7 where activity really seems to drop off to a plateau around 1.125, 000 transfers a week until the January wildcard opportunity sees another huge ramp in transfers only to see activity fall back to the sub-million mark.  The latest DGW in week 33 really grabbed people's attention though, perhaps with a fair few -4pt or -8pt hits going on as people make a last gasp push for some points. 

It's fairly reassuring that the activity level does not plummet too much once the honeymoon period of the new season is past, and that the activity level now is not too dissimilar to that through GW11-19 when the FPL campaign is still hot.

 

Wednesday, 24 April 2013

GW34 Top Ranked Players

The above ranking are based on my F.SCORE metric, determined from underlying stats only, an aggregate of shots, shots on target, key passes etc. to give an indicator of a player's statistical performance and whether they deserved decent FPL points or just got a lucky shot in off their arse. 

As usual we see Suarez and Van Persie up top and are joined by a few randoms who had a good game, e.g. Kamara.  

The Top Players page has been updated with the 6 week and season long rankings. Andy Carroll's recent run of perfromances see's him sitting comfortably in the second tier of players in the 6 week rankings right now, behind the likes of RVP, Suarez and Bale and alongside Cisse, Benteke and Michu.

Check out the GW34 Match Centre for stats for every player from all the matches this weekend gone.

GW34 Match Centre

Got to be regarded as very disappointing performances for managers of any of these team's players, especially on the back of a dudd DGW for most of the attackers.  Except for Mertesacker and the other Arsenal defenders of course.  Giroud's late red card is worth noting. He'll be suspended for 3 games which may open the door again for Walcott, and could also see Gervinho back out on the right.


Juan Mata does it again, assisting on both Chelsea's goals.  Daniel Sturridge does in too, and in just 45 minutes. It's worth pointing out that both Mata's assists were from his only two key passes and it remains Hazard who poses the most goal threat of the two, though both were eclipsed by Oscar here. Ultimately though it's Suarez in the headlines as he too does it again, bite's someone that is.  Did you know his spell at Ajax ended when he bit a player and received a 7 game suspension, forcing Ajax to sell to Liverpool?

Norwich put in a good performance against Reading here, and may have enjoyed a more convincing 3-0 scoreline on a different day.  Kei Kamara had a good game and Holt too is an outside option for the run-in as Norwich face a trio of midlands(ish) clubs in Stoke(A), Villa (H) and West Brom (H).  Reading face relegation.

Another team surely facing relegation and this result, whilst not the performance perhaps, must go down as one of the worst of the season.  Stoke, in such a bad run of their own, and never a team likely to score a goal away from home managed to score two.

The Di Canio effect continues and Sunderland options increase in appeal for what remains of the season.  What was most notable here for me is the limit Sunderland put on Everton's attack, allowing just one shot on target.  

Talking about limiting the attack, both teams did this here. Michu's shot accuracy is way down on where it was through the majority of the season.  Perhaps this is an indicator that Swansea have just lost that extra few percentage off top-drawer performance.  He's still the point of the Swans attack though and should be good for another goal or two this season.

Quite a comeback and performance overall for Spurs and once again the stats will back up what we all know already- Gareth Bale is a legend in the making, if not already. I feel sorry for the rest of the Spurs team sometimes, they hardly get a look in although Dempsey had a good game here.  Nasri and Tevez are bothdoing their best to fill the void felt by Aguero and Silva and the Frenchman in particular could be an interesting alternative for City's DGW.

 
I can't wax too lyrical over Lukaku from this performance although he did pick up an assist.  Newcastle have shown an ability to defend in their last two games.  Cisse has re-established himself as he main striker at Newcastle although it's a surely too little too late for FPL managers this season.  Keep an eye on him for nex year though.

One of Andy Carroll's best performances this season and shows his appetite is up and he's deserving of recent plaudits. This should benefit the whole West Ham team, as it did here for Nolan who volley home after a Carrol knock on.  Wigan will feel unlucky to have scored one or two themselves after having plenty of chances.  Few fell to Kone though and the Hammer's did a good job of restricting Wigan to shots from midfield and outside the box.

GW34 saved the best to last and Van Persie stunning hat-trick was something special and made the evening a real occasion to celebrate for the Old Trafford crowd.  As the stats indicate, United had just the 3 shots on target but Kagawa and Vanb Persie both missed decent chances (Kagawa especially) and Rafael's long ranger hit a post.  Congratulations to United this season.


Sunday, 21 April 2013

GW33 Match Centre (Part Two)

Need to reiterate... GW33 :)   This is part two of GW33 Match Centre with the midweek games now updated.Part One is here.






Saturday, 20 April 2013

GW34 Captain Rankings

This week may well be the final nail in the coffin my own Van Persie-less team as he stands out as an overwelhming captain favourite this week. I may just have to take a huge gamble on Lukaku who, if he plays, I'm sure will do well too.


Tuesday, 16 April 2013

Projections Updated GW34-38

The Projections page has been updated for the next GW and the remaining 5 GW. Double Gameweeks are included with Chelsea, City, Tottenham, Wigan, West Brom and Swansea all getting a double in GW36. Time to all rev up to that then. Dicing quickly through these fixtures my focus personally is going to be on Spurs and City, with Bale a priority to resign, Tevez a high probablity, and a firm eye on Aguero and one of Silva and Yaya. Doubling up on City defence might be worthwhile too. Cheaper optiosn from Wigan and West Brom could do well, I wish Lukaku could be trusted to start every game.


Sunday, 14 April 2013

GW33 Match Centre (Part One)

With 4 games of Fantasy Premier League GW33 to be played Tues/Weds this is going to part one of two Match Centre posts It's a been a bit of an anti-climax so far with only one of the hotly fancied trio of Fellaini, Cazorla and Van Persie registering anything like decent points.  Breath is still witheld though and with another 360+ of Premier League football to come it could still all happen for your players.


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 This was about to be the biggest shock of the weekend until a strange and unfortunate penalty decision allowed Arsenal to get back in it at 1-1.  After then the floodgates opened, and in truth they probably would have anyway.   Oliver Giroud (my here) absolutely stole the show from the much fancied Cazorla here. He get an assist (not shown in data) as well as his goal and his key stats tell you the story.
 
 A somewhat professional performance from Everton you could say, doing enough to get a comfortable win without trying too hard, and getting a rare clean sheet in the process.  Kevin Mirallas is a genuine quality player and some say the best Belgian at Everton. He and Victor Anichebe are two strong fantasy options from the Merseyside club, Anichebe particularly.  I had a good hard look at him myself around January but felt Jelavic would reclaim the striker's spot, which he did, but Anichebe's forced his way back into the team on merit and at just £4.3m is an absolute steal.  If you own him this DGW well done you.


Fulham scored a goal without having a shot on target, thanks to Delph's own goal.  Fulham puzzle me.  It's rare for a team with an attacking philosophy to register such a low number of shots in a game, something they've done many times this season.  Maybe they're just shit??  Charles N'Zogbia has been a fairly steady player of late, and Benteke of course we all know about.


The Mackem fans are in love with Di Canio after this game but they probably got lucky when Pappis Cisse's goal was ruled out.  They certainly had their tails up though and I'm sure a man as outspoken and flamboyant a player as Di Canio would have sent them out on a high. No-one player really stands out though from their team and I think this might just have been a result written in the stars.


Southampton have been playing well recently as you know, but without really setting the world on fire.  West Ham too.  Here both teams played out for a score draw which would have been an educated guess before hand.  Andy Carrol has playing well but comes with a hefty FPL price tag.  Gaston Ramirez' much reduced price tag now a better option than Puncheon and Scheiderlin in this team,  as well as Jay Rodriguez of course, who was benched here due to illness only I believe.


A very rare performance from Carrick here saw him shooting from inside the penalty box three times and scoring a goal, completely outperforming the other so called attacking players in the team. Kagawa, Valencia registering nothing of fantasy interest at all.  It's still about Van Persie for United, despite growing interest in Rooney, again in midfield and not managing to get a shot off inside the box. 

If Arsenal was almost the shock of the weekend then this result was the real thing. A phenomenal display in goal from Reading's McCarthy making 12 saves! The main fantasy story here though is Liverpool and Suarez' blanks, against all the odds. This is the highest number of shots on target a team has had this season without scoring a goal. Liverpool had that record before this game too, registering 9 SoT without scoring away at Swansea in GW13.   On average this season when team's have 9 or 10 shots on target they've averaged 2.95 goals.



Saturday, 13 April 2013

GW33 Captain Rankings are Here!


Note:  Walcott may well not play thre full 90 minutes in both games coming back from an injury. 

Wednesday, 10 April 2013

GW32 Match Centre











GW32 Top Ranked Players

Gameweek 32 was the story of Liverpool and Suarez failing to deliver with a 0-0 draw against West Ham at Anfield.  Michu served up a timely reminder that he's not to be forgotten though despite a blank fixture in GW33.  Indeed Swansea were bang back in form against a Norwich side not normally likely to concede so many shots and goals.

The Arsenal pair of Rosicky and Gervinho, two players who you could genuinely have forgotten about this season, were big point winners.  The latter only had the single shot but Rosicky was carried a decent threat.  Cazorla was reduced to a much more withdrawn, creative role. 2 key passes and 1 shot.

Pappis Cisse has found his scoring boots, not quite the ones he left behind last season. He's now scored 3 in 6, 4 in 7 if you count Europe, but without a sparkling fixture list or a DGW to tempt managers he's likely to see garner much interest this season although he does probably deserve a closer examination for the final 5 gamweeks.

It's Southampton's Jay Rodriguez though who has quietly moved in as the most intriguing FPL player to me right now.  I mentioned him a couple of times in recent Match Centres as one to watch although I did not expect quite the points haul.   He's currently ranked 8th in the FSCORE rankings over the last 6 GW.  Check out the 6 week and Season rankings on the Top Players page.

Friday, 5 April 2013

Player Guide GW32-36 [by InsideFPL]

Check out this beauty, my numbers combined with their graphics...thanks to InsideFPL for creating it.  They'll/we'll be updating it with team news and any other changes through the rest of the season.


GW32 Captain Rankings

  

Hope you  enjoyed my April Fool's joke earlier in the week.  Don't no-one handing the armband to Tony Hibbert, legend that he is! 

Looking at the rankings then captaining Suarez this week is probably the easiest decision I'll make all season.  There really is no alternative that isn't without the level of risk that will have you hiding behind your sofa for a few hours over the weekend. He's way out there.

Bale's injury is  a major blow but could the timing be better, home game against Everton, followed by a blank GW and then the visit of City.  A stretch of 3 games you might be better off without out him.  

Anyway, that's an aside, there are a few more intriguing options amongst the captain picks.  Demba Ba should feature for Chelsea with Torres rested after playing in Europe.  He could do really well against Sunderland.  Remy and Lukaku are the other two players.

With all the fixture malarkey over the next few weeks I've contributed the Captain Rankings over this period to the InsideFPL newsletter and they've produced a lovely infographic showing the best picks each week, from the perspective of top points scored, likely differentials and best cheap players.  I managed to get hold of an early test draft of GW32's.  I do love a nice graphic :)

You can see the finished article and picks for the next few weeks by signing up to the newsletter over at InsideFPL.com.






Thursday, 4 April 2013

Guest Post: GW32 Preview by Ultra Fantasy Football




Cazorla, Back on form??

What a week we have had here at Ultra Fantasy Football! First we announce our brand new Fantasy Football App for IPhone and then we finally get around to finishing our new website!! Hope you like it. Anyway back to the footie!!!

So we hope you took our advice in the GW31 Preview as five of the seven players we mentioned hit four points or more. Most notably Lambert, Tevez, Zabaleta and Oxlaide Chaberlain.
One thing to remember this week is that you should be building for the highly anticipated GW33 as both Arsenal and Manchester United will have double game weeks. So with that in mind lets get on with the preview.

Starting with Arseanl and It’s a well known fact that Arsenal’s usual no.1 Szcesny, hasn’t had the best of seasons. Arsene Wenger has made a bold move, in what is such an important part of the season by dropping Szcesny (value 5.3 selected by 4.5%) for 3rd choice keeper Lukasz Fabianski (value 4.3 selected by 0.7%). Based on his last two performances in the league his run in the first team should continue and valued at 4.3, if you do choose to bring him into your side you should have some extra cash to spend in those more important areas of your team such as midfield.

Another worth considering from Arsenal at the moment is the inform Gervinho, (value 6.8 selected by 1.6%). Generally a cause for frustration among Arsenal supporters, Gervinho has been playing remarkably well the last two games with two goals and two assists in his last two games leaving him with a nice points haul of 21points in two games! With the likes of Wilshire and Walcott ruled out for the weekend expect Gervinho to be in the starting eleven come Saturday afternoon, as they take on West Brom away from home.

Santi Cazorla has been giving FPL managers plenty to think about ahead of the weekend and rightly so as he picked up 12 points with a goal and an assist last time out. Valued currently at 9.6 you can expect that value to rise dramatically over the coming days as managers look ahead to game week 33. Our advice?…get him in early before you can’t afford him at all.

Perhaps not out of form, but definitely not scoring like he has in the past ,Robin Van Persie is on the decline and by decline I don’t mean his ability on the pitch, but by the decline of managers who are selecting him. Over 100,000 managers have dropped him from their teams in the last two weeks. So if you too are looking at swapping out the Dutch man perhaps you shouldn’t look to far for a replacement? Wayne Rooney (value 12.0 selected by 8.4%) has missed quite a few games for United this season, however when he has played he has picked up some very big points indeed! Out of the 12 games he has started this season; in six of them he has scored 11points or more! He has the highest points per mminute played ratio in the game yet is still only selected by 8.4%. Now obviously this is down to Rooney’s lack of playing time, but with a trip to Man City you can bet your bottom dollar that Rooney will be in that first eleven. Last time out against City, Rooney scored twice and played the full 90minutes. Will he be at it again come Monday evening? We at Ultra Fantasy Football certainly think so! With a Double game week to come for United the following week it seems crazy not consider him.

With most of United’s back line in the physioroom at the moment it’s probably best to stay away from picking any of them, if you haven’t already. It’s a dangerous game second guessing Fergie and one we advise people not to take.

Phillipe Coutinho (value 6.9 selected by 4.6) is a player we can’t stop admiring here at Ultra-FantasyFootball.com at the moment. His link up play with Suarez has been simply sublime lately and any player who links up well with Suarez is a friend of Fantasy Football Managers. In his last five games Coutinho has scored twice and assisted his team with three earning 30points from those five fixtures. With Fellaini (value 7.4 selected by 23.3%) out suspended and Michu’s (value 8.3 selected by 47.8%) goals drying up, Coutinho may be the very man to replace them?


Rickie Lambert (value 7.1 selected by 24.5%) maybe the man receiving all the plaudits over at Southampton, but one to consider is the other front man Jay Rodriguez (value 5.1 selected by 1.0%). Rodriguez seems to have slipped under the radar for many managers but he is no joke and fantastic value. In his last two fixtures against Chelsea and Liverpool he scored in both in fact he actually picked up more points than Lambert those games. In The last 8 games that Rodriguez has played he has assisted seven and scored in three!! In Lambert s last 8 he has scored four but only assisted in three.

These goals have mainly come down to the managers new style that he has brought to the club. They press high and attack very fast, without a doubt staying up this year. With fixtures to come against Reading (A) West Ham (H) and Swansea (A) this Southampton team should continue to score plenty of goals and Rodriguez a must in that team if you don’t already have Lambert.
That just about rounds it up for this week. We hope you enjoyed the GW32 preview and remember if you have any questions regarding your team choices drop us a Tweet @FootballUltra or on Facebook we always enjoy hearing from the FPL guys!

Remember we have a new Fantasy Football management App coming out very soon for the Official Fantasy Premier League on Iphone so if you would like to be in with a chance of winning a copy of the App on release just sign up to our newsletter.

Wednesday, 3 April 2013

GW31 Match Centre

Delay in posting this week due to the small matter of moving house.  I'lll have to let the stats tell the story.  Check out the GW31 Top Ranked Players post from earlier in the week for a little more commentary.