Friday 23 November 2012

GW13 Captain Rankings

Here are my captain rankings for Gameweek 13.  I've added something extra this week.  To the right hand side for each player is their distribution of F.SCORE for each of our twelve gameweeks to date.  F.SCORE is an aggregate scoring system I have developed to rate a player's fantasy impact based on total shots, shots in the box, shots on target, key passes, etc.  Read more here.

The far left of the scale is a F.SCORE of about 20-40, usually one shot on target at most, and equivalent roughly to 2 points in FPL.  The far right of the scale is more like a F.SCORE of 100+ and equivalent to a 8-12 point score in FPL.  If a player scored less than 20 then the data was excluded (i.e. late sub appearance with no impact). 

The further the players score distribution, or "hump", is to the right hand side of the the more high scores they've had.  Conversely, the more the distribution is to the left of the scale the more frequently he has been achieving a lower score.   For example, Bale has shown he can consistently produce a medium score but on occasion a very big score.  Van Persie has more often a low-medium score but has achieved big scores more than anyone else in this list.  Suarez has consistently hit a medium-high score.  Kone has a low-to-medium score consistently without showing he can hit the odd big score like Crouch or Jelavic can.  I hope it makes sense.  If not ask away and I'll try to explain further.

Keen eyes will notice a couple of things from these mini-distributions. What I'm extra excited about is that the player's F,SCORE distribution are showing a tendency towards normal distribution, particular Baines and Suarez, but all the players seem to have a curve under which they typically perform in, with some players, the bigger and better players, able to perform to a higher lvel on occasion (bimodal).  I am definitely going to see what this "occasion" is.  

I think it also visually demonstrates a player's "floor" and "ceiling", as they are know in the FPL world.  RVP, Bale, Suarez and Jelavic have never had a minimum scoring game, whereas Kone, Crouch, Baines and Lambert have never had a very high scoring game.  I am going to try to quantify these for the players and incorporate into the projections.  Don't know exactly how yet, but where there's a will there's a way.  Any suggestions, do let me know.

Final point to remember of course - shots on target don't always go in, but do they help ;)

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