Wednesday, 31 October 2012

GW10 Select XI (updated with Lukaku).

 

This is my typically off the wall Select XI for Gameweek 10.  I strongly had to resist the urge to put in Lukaku and even captain him against Southampton but I can't be sure if he'll start.  If he does, expect a hatrick ;)

EDIT:  Lukaku looks set to start with Shane Long injured so I will update this soon, with him replacing Berbatov, and Mata replaces Morrison as I'm only allowing myself a single attacking player from any team.

In the end I went for a sound pick of Morrison, along with team mate Foster in nets.

The biggest surprise for me from the output of my model is the lack of a Chelsea player, in particular Juan Mata, against Swansea.  My prediction model is now almost entirely using this season's data so is not treating the Liberty like the fortress it ws last season, and instead Michu just edges his compatriot out of the reckoning.

I've got a lot of time for Junior Hoilett this week and predictably Gareth Bale makes up the midfield quartet. 

In defence Bale's team mate Kyle Walker gets the first of the defensive births alongside Skrtel and O'Shea.

Up-front...Van Persie, who has only made my Select XI once this season, and made a mockery of me at times, leads the line but does not get my captain pick.  Berbatov (if fit) and Suarez are sound picks this week too I believe.






12 comments:

  1. Does the model highly favour home teams? Obviously the statistics are there, but who were the best away playing players this week?

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  2. It looks like it does highly favour home teams, as does football. You'll notice the Scout Picks are alomost always playing at home. You're right though, that perhaps it is too favourable at present. I will have a butchers at this in due course. I've been tinkering of late with a model that ignores the team stats and concentrates more on a players stats/points.

    Anyway, this would be an Away XI... would be domianted by Che & City but just one from each team,

    Clichy, Baines, Huth
    Mata, Cazorla, Walters, McAnuff
    Jelavic, Tevez, Ba*

    * if injured then Kone

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  3. What no love for my main man Cuellar? :)

    Understand the model but love Mata this week. Swansea can't stop anyone. Of course, I also think Michu is a good play as Chelsea's defense is overrated although the return of Terry will help.

    Skrtel is an awesome choice as Newcastle is in deep shite if Ba is hurt. They have been a below average offense with his superb performance and they stand to be terrible without him. Expect a 1-0 at Anfield this weekend.

    I know Wigan isn't great but the Spurs defensive has not been good. I would rather take my chances with Clichy at WHM to be honest.

    Hoilett is an interesting and solid choice. Like QPR this weekend to score a pair.

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  4. Oh and on your visiting team 11, you almost have to have an AVL defensive cover, no? Sunderland can't even score in Capital One Cup games with a full squad!

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  5. I think Sunderland can score 1 goal at home. If they try really, really hard. :)

    Maybe should have had Clichy over Walker. It's Walker's attacking points probably that gave him the edge.

    Mata was just a whisker beneath Michu. Mata forecasted to get 5.1 pts, Michu 5.2. A whisker !

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  6. Long has picked up a hamstring injury, Trappatoni says “It would be a surprise for me if plays (on Monday)"

    LUKAKU!!!

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  7. Thinking about Lukaku...awaiting Berbatov injury news. If he is out for more than a week Lukaku may be the call! It's down to him and Jelavic I think.

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  8. Lukaku will be in my dream team too :). 1 more question for my decision this week: Keep Jelavic or Tevez 1 of them is going for Rooney(already have Baines, but no City players) But I feel Tevez has slightly overperformed and Jelly is due. #Dilemma :)

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  9. I'd go with Jelavic mate. What you going to do with the extra money though?

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  10. Stupid question: Go with Jelavic means Tevez out right? But regarding cash in the bank I got no worries about letting it just sit in the bank for a rainy day. Will need it to upgrade Jelly in a couple of weeks or for other moves.

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  11. Yes. Jely over Tevez. It's more of a gut feeling than purely objective one though, although stats do back it up. You can transfer the remaining money to my swiss bank account. Cheers!

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  12. Thanks for clearing that up, my gut is telling Jelly too. Hope we both are right. Money will probably be used for Jenkinson to Sagna or where- ever :D

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