Thursday, 25 October 2012

Rotation: What's the Risk?





 
On Fantasy blogs everywhere the words "Rotation Risk" are often tagged on to the end of any sentence on the selection of Manchester United's Van Persie or City's Sergio Aguero.

I was one of the many mangers who eagerly captained Van Persie in United's home clash against Wigan only to be rewarded with a crushing 2 points when the Dutchman made a late appearance from the bench.  Aguero owners haven't had it as hard, with both his  substitute appearances yielding attacking points.

I have had a look at both player's next few Premier League fixtures mingled in with their Champion's League fixtures.  I've then put myself in the shoes of Ferguson and Mancini and tried to preempt possible rotation and from this attempted to calculate the actual risk vs.reward, i.e. points, from both players.

 



I've had a go at guessing which games both these player may miss given their fixtures preceding and following each Champion's League tie, and indeed the difficulty of said tie.

Aguero
Man City have a lot to do to progress in the UCL after just 1 point from their first 3 games and will target home ties with Ajax and Real Madrid as must win. Agueor is Mancini's number one attacking talent in my opinion and City will need him to progress.  Ahead of the Ajax game, I would not be suprised to see Mancici rest Aguero away game agaisnt West Ham, especially ahead of a home clash with Tottenham a few days later.  Similary, before Real Madrid roll up at the Etihad a home fixture against Aston Villa gives Aguero another chance to sit out.  Finally, City host Everton just a few days before flying out to Germany in what could be a do-or-death fixture against an impressive Dortmund, followed right after by a crucial match against United.  Nervous times for Aguero owners.





 
Van Persie
In contrast, United have won 3 out of 3 in Europe this season, despite some shocking defending, and can look ahead without much concern.  Of course, after last season, Ferguson will not get complacent, and an away game against Galatasary is no easy match.  The visit to Braga will not be simple either and I can only see Ferguson entertaining resting his key men in between these two away trips, perhaps for the  visit to Norwich.  The home game with QPR is also a chacne for rest.  By the time Old Trafford sees the visit of Cluj though, United may already be group winners, and even if not, with the  trip to title rivals City a few days later Ferguson could conceiveably rest Van Persie for Champion's Legaue game, if needed.  To sum up, with this fixture list I don't believe Van Perise is much of a rotation risk at all.

Potential Points Impact - Aguero
If Aguero played in all the first 7 Premier League games (up until DOR(A)) I have him forecast to achieve a league-leading  F.SCORE of 322, which is roughly 32 points, or 4-5 goals worth.  The plum fixtures in this run are SWA (H) ,which I don't think he'll miss, AVL (H) which I do think is a risk, and WIG (A), which again is a risk.  If he missed these last two his forecast points is down to 23, or 2ish goals.  

Potential Points Impact - Van Perise
If RVP played all theses 7 games my model projects a FSCORE of 311, tied 2nd with Ba.  Approx. 31 points, so not a great deal less than Aguero.  As discussed above, a potential missed fixture would be NOR (A), seeing his forecast drop to 27pts, or QPR (H), dropping his forecast to 25 pts.  I don't think he'll miss more than one game. The best news would be his availability for WHM(H) and RDG(A), which could yield big points and are definetly armband candidates.

VERDICT
Look over the fixtures yourself and see what you think.  I think Aguero has to be a major rotation risk given the European challange facing City, whereas Van Persie is considerably less so.  Let me know what you think in the comments.




2 comments:

  1. Good work and I agree on your thought process here. I would agree that rotation looks likely for Aguero more often than Van Persie. However, I do believe that one should note that the Dortmund game could end up being meaningless unless City care about qualifying for Europa. The plausible scenario:

    Dortmund and Madrid draw next round. City beat Ajax at home. The points break out as:

    Dortmund 8
    Madrid 7
    City 4
    Ajax 3

    With two games to go, City need to win both games or Madrid and Dortmund cannot be caught. So, if City and Madrid were to draw in Ethiad and Dortmund pick up at least one point in Amsterdam, the final Dortmund game would be irrelevant as the top two would be secured.

    Further, it looks highly unlikely that City will progress to the knockout stage while United is almost guaranteed a spot. I would not expect heavy rotation of Aguero for Europa (until maybe the semi-finals), so you could actually be in better shape long term with the Argentine.

    More food for thought. Personally, I am looking at sliding Aguero in for GW 14 and probably keeping him locked in at least until my January WC.

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  2. Aye, agree that that is a likely scenario that may come about sooner rather than later. Long-term, sure, I agree that Aguero looks a great player to own.

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