Tuesday 2 October 2012

6 Week Team Analysis - Chelsea

The comparative analysis for Chelsea will not be as straight forward as other teams due to a significant change of management and play style part way through last season but let's see what it reveals.

Team Form


Up front Chelsea have added Oscar and Hazard as well as letting Torres lead the line up with the departure of Drogba.  They have scored significantlly more goals this season than in the comparative fixtures from 2011/12.  They've created an approximate amount of chances and got into the box with a similar frquency but their accuracy in front of goal has improved a fair bit.  Last season they only managed 2 goals from 20 efforts on target, a 10:1 ratio which is outstandingly poor.  This season they have been much more consistent turning SoT into goals in line with league average of 3 to 1

This season Chelsea have been conceding the opposition more chances in total and allowing more in their penalty box than compared to the same fixutures last season.  Despite this they have conceded just 1 goal compared to 4 last year, and that coming in an away win at the Emirates, so no bad thing really.  To my mind there's something missing from the stats presented in this analysis and it deserves a deeper look.

Chelsea's  possession stats in the same fixtures last year was 56% total and 59% in the opponents final third.  This season to date they have roughly the same stats, 55% & 59%.  They too are putting out almost identifcal numebrs in other defensive indicators such as Possession Lost, Bad Tocuhes, and Defensive Errors.  So whats the difference?  I can't find one!!  If you look in detail at the "Against" stats for each match they are very similar this season to last. I can only conclude at this point that last season they were unlucky but this year have been on th right side of the coin flip.  If this kind of form continues for 3-4 more weeks I will have to delve deeper.  It could be the return to form of Petr Cech who is currently in the top 5 GK for Saves made - a rare thing for Top 4 goalkeepers.  Any opinions on this let me know!

 Player Form

Looking at the above form table it's hard to really pick out a single player from the midfield or fowards that are an obvious source of FPL points, with a the best scoring chances (SoT) getting shared out.  Oscar, Lampard, Torres and Hazard have all had the odd good game, and Mata, now back in the eleven, is showing some consistency and would probably be my only pick from the Chelsea for your fantasy front 7.

There's a lot going on in defence though, with the pre-discussed defensive form and real attacking threat in the form of Cole, Luiz, Cahill and Ivanovic, particularly the latter.

Juan Mata would be more principle pick from this lot, coming at £8.8m he's cheaper than all the otehr elite midfielders, but I'd put more of a monitor on him though than a firm buy.  Oscar and Hazard's presence in the team this year are affecting his potential for fantasy returns.  At the back anyone could be a good pick but Ashely Cole is the most nailed on for game time.

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