|SoT=Shots on Target, Gin = Goals in Box, SOTin=Shots on Target in Box, Sin = Shots in box, SOTout=Shots on target from outside box, F3rd= Final 3rd Touches|
UPDATE: It was pointed out that I missed 'Total Shots' from this analysis so there is an updated post to include this data here.
The above table is a correlation matrix for almost 100 midfielders and forwards from 2011/12 season showing the correlation between their FPL attacking points scored and their key attacking stats. The 100 players include all the main men you'd expect from the 2011/12 season, and Stewart Downing.
The data was obtained via the MCFC Analytics project Thank you kind sirs.
When I first did this analysis there wasn't any really strong correlation, with the highest factor being the number of minutes played (0.61 correlation). Of course this is true. Half of most player's points comes from appearance points. So I stripped the appearance points out. I also eliminated defender's from the analysis as their clean sheet points would confuddle the data in the same way.
The results are meaningful and demonstrate why I am so focused and maybe a tad overzealous of the Shots on Target metric, and indeed why I have named this site such.
After goals scored and goals scored in the box (Gin) the strongest correlation with FPL points is Shots on Target (SoT), stronger even than Shots on Target In the Box (SOTin).
The correlation between Assists and FPL points is not so strong but really this is due to the vast number of points obtained from goals, particularly the extra point scored for a midfielder, and of course bonus points. If I do a basic subtraction of 5pts per each goal scored from the total points per player the correlation for assists increases to 0.75 (midfielder clean sheet points remain in the total, and 5pts per goal is a very simplistic value given the differnt range of bonus points awarded). It's nice to see a good correlation between key passes and final third touches (0.80) , however there is not a great deal of correlation between key passes and assists (0.65). I think this could be improved by looking where key passes are made - i.e in the box or from crosses, but this is for further work.
I don't think there is much more to say on this to be honest. I believe the numbers speak for themselves. Clearly goals mean fantasy points, and shots on target means goals.
I've actually taken this analysis further by combining a few of these individual stats to improve the correlation and produce a profile of the optimum FPL point scoring player. Stay tuned.