Wednesday, 10 October 2012

MyFPL GW7

A quick look back over my personal gameweek.  I scored 47 points and dropped to 20K overall and a disastrous 3rd in my minileague!  It's all recoverable though, only a few points off really.  

My lineup was:  Foster / Gibbs Johnson Baines / Cazorla Bale Fellaini Pienaar HBA / Defoe Ba
 
I paid the price for ignoring Chelsea - I have had Torres, Hazard and Ivanovic in my team at some point this season and now have no-one.  I have no United or City either.  Risky business.

I am confident over the next 6-8 GW though that neither Hazard nor Torres will return the points a combined £20m plus investment would demand.  Same goes for United's attacking options.  Van Persie, Rooney, et al, just come at too much of a premium without anywhere near the guarantee of super points, or even gametime.  My opinion on this will change once RVP has a tasty home fixture or two lined up. Can't ignore him as a captain option in those circumstances.

I am ruing selling Ivanovic for the then quickly injured BAE.  I reacted to a small whiff of unsubstantiated rumour that he would lose his place at right back to new signing Azpilicueta and that clearly has not happened.  Plus the Serb has continued his goal-scoring form, which from a (belated) look at his career statistics tells you he does score a good number of goals for a defender.  I think I have missed the boat on this one though so no looking back now.

Attacking options for Manchester City are something I am determined to get in on though, with David Silva my preferred option.  I could dump HBA and Fellaini for Silva and a £5m option which might be the best play.  One of my 3 Everton players has to go (again got caught up in the Fellaini Captain hype vs. Southampton).

Anyway, as I like the stats I have looked at my FPL points scored per gameweek and plotted these against the number of Shots Taken, Shots on Target, Goals and Assists from my selected players each week:
FPL pts excludes GK and (C)

The blue line is my FPL points each week  minus GK and Captain points. The column chart is the key attacking stats, in descending order of importance.  On the bottom is goals, then assists, moving up to Shots on Target and Total Shots. I have excluded Key Passes as they are so numerous as to dwarf the rest of the data.

The underlying stats track extremely well with points until this last gameweek.  My guys just didn't generate as many chances this week.  It's nothing to do with luck really although I was thinking it was with Baines and Bale both hitting the post.

Despite a couple of off but not too bad gameweeks I am encouraged by this analysis.  The data is behaving, just need to predict the future now :)

1 comment:

  1. This week was frustrating, wasn't it? I scored 49 points, but took a hit for a last second transfer of Sterling for Guthrie. I was concerned about Tevez and Toure possibly not playing (moreso Tevez) and with Guthrie almost certainly not on I was looking at falling back to one of my crappy defenders with terrible matchups. So, I made the switch and Sterling sat on my bench for the hit. At least I made a few pounds in the process.

    I rolled out:

    Jaas (Bego)
    Rafael / Baines / Rangel (Figueroa, Cuellar)
    Cozorla / Bale / Toure / Pienaar (Sterling)
    Tevez / Suarez / Lambert (C)

    Captaining Lambert turned out poorly, but after watching the game on replay I feel I was a bit unlucky there. I dropped to 213K overall and 6th out of 14 in my mini league. So don't despair, you are certainly doing better than I!

    I have a few high-level ideas for my team at this point. I am sitting on 2.9 million in the bank primarily as the result of swapping out RVP (he is way too expensive for my blood). This week, I will almost certainly bring in Berbatov for Tevez unless Berbs doesn't look ready to go. That will leave me with another 2.3 (my sale price for Tevez is 9.3 and I don't think Berb's will go down again). So, with 5.2 to spend I have a ton of options.

    I could see myself going a number of different routes. The defense obviously needs improving, but I am not yet sure as to where to invest. I also would like to get Silva in the lineup, probably at the expense of Toure. Who knows, maybe I end up with RVP again? (doubtful, btw)

    All I know is that I would love my WC back, especially considering my initial team wasn't all that terrible. I panicked though for RVP when he looked like a must have as I could not fit him in without completely destroying my lineup. My initial team had Silva, Bale, Toure, Aguero, Lambert, Ivanovic and Baines. That was a solid core although the rest of the team was absolute shite!

    Oh the fun of playing fantasy football...

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