Wednesday 24 October 2012

Ben Arfa vs Cabaye


 

A fellow named Pulma (who's blog Fantasy Footy Tips you should check out) tweeted me today and asked my thoughts on Hatem Ben Arfa.  After a quick look at the stats I replied that he does not get off enough shots in the box this season compared to last.

Ben Arfa 2011/12: 26 appearance (1636 minutes), 34 shots (S), 16 shots in box (Sin), 11 on target, 5 goals
Avg. Sin = 0.9 per 90 mins  Penetration (Sin/S) = 47%

Ben Arfa 2012/13: 8 appearances (740 minutes), 11 shots, 4 shots in box, 4 on target, 2 goals.
Avg. Sin = 0.5 per 90 mins, Penetration = 36%

From my observations this season Ben Arfa has either been given a free role in Newcastle's attack or has been used tactically as the "extra man" in midfied, shifting positions to the main area of play in an attempt by Pardew to establish control of the midfield.  Either role means he does not maintain an advanced position as he drifts where he wants.

So how does he compare to French team mate Yohan Cabaye, who has so far, despite a pretty good 2011/12 season, gone under the radar of most fantasy managers. The following chart shows both players key attacking stats this season so far, normalised to minutes played due to Cabaye missing one game against Reading. 


Normalised Attacking Stats 2012/13.  Cabaye vs. HBA

As you can see it's pretty even, with Cabaye just edging it in the goal threat department and a little bit further ahead in creativity. Ben Arfa has obviously scored more actual points, he's played one game extra and one has an extra goal to his name.   Bear in mind one of his goals was a penalty and he is not the Magpies usual spot kick man.

Overall, I think they are pretty even in terms of fantasy potential, but Cabaye comes in at £1.1m cheaper and is much less owned.  The thing with Ben Arfa is he's a flair player and he gets attention.  He scores wonder goals, screams them in from 30 yards, gets airtime on Match of the Day.  Not saying he's a bad option but I do think he's over-priced.  

Alternatives
Which other midfielders are available in this upper midpriced £7-8m bracket?  A bit busy this next image, but I hope it tells it's own story.  Michu is obviously the player to own but with 32% of fantasy managers already signed up this comes as no surprise.  There's also Fellaini who I left off this graph as it's already too busy already, but he is also not new to you. 

After these two, it's really a tie between Ben Arfa, Cabaye and Gervinho, with the latter offering the greater goal threat, but his numbers will be skewed by his couple of games in the striker's position.  Arteta comes a distinct last unfortunately (2.7% owned).




Final Thoughts

I think Ben Arfa is over-priced when you compare him to his team mate Cabaye. But, to be frank, except for players whose price has risen (ie Michu/Fellaini) I am not a fan of this price bracket for midfielders, especially when you look at the kind of strikers you can pick up for the a similar outlay - Berbatove, Defoe, Ba, Crouch, Fletcher.  I think this kind of money is better split between viable low-price or budget options (e.g. Morrison, Nolan, Maloney) and your real elite mids (Bale, Mata, etc.)

Like this?  Then take a look at my Player Comparison between Chelsea's Mata and Hazard

Do let me know of any other player comparisons you think would be of interest.







3 comments:

  1. These player analysis and comparisons are excellent.

    Do you think you can do one on Rooney and RVP too?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Anon! I will do a Rooney vs RVP next week, one more week of data will be interesting, especially away at Chelsea/

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Shots on Target,

    Would be interesting to see Yaya Toure vs all of the other Man City Midfielders and where he is compared to the 'elite' player's in the premiership so far. Does the fscore show that his recent run of 2 points is 'unlucky' & is due to pick up points soon, or perhaps the fscore shows that Man City are playing him deeper this year and we should expect less points than last year. I realise he is one of the more expensive mid's but his almost undroppable position in City's team would be a great way to test the fscore.

    ReplyDelete