Tuesday 30 October 2012

GW10 Buying Guide

I've decided this week I'll get my Buying Guide and GW Select XI out for perusal as soon as possible.  We all need plenty of time to mull over transfers!

It'll be a provisional guide at this point, due to concerns over injury to some key players and the midweek league cup games.  UPDATE: No longer provisional, Berbatov is fit, Ba is "likely".

Also I have been working on some revisions to my projection model and there is more tweaking to come.  I hope to have some improvements in place this week.  Preliminary tests don't show much of a difference in the projections but there are some things outstanding which I would like to do.

Whether I make any changes to the guide or not before Friday I will comment on any changes with a new post.

Usual system follows,  players have been selected using my Point Projection model to have the best ranking over the next six fixtures.  Included for each position type is a Form Table which will show you the relative strength of schedule over these 6 fixtures for each player so that you may plan transfers accordingly.  The table also shows current price and ownership as of date of this post.

I will add that often the selection is based on buying this player for the coming gameweek, especially if fixtures in the next 1-3 weeks are really tasty,  This is particularly true at the lower end of the price scale where a team's fixtures have an increased bearing on performance versus a players from.

I must preface this section with Robin Van Persie.  My model and previous projections have yet to really mention him as a top choice, he's only ever mentioned in the "Elite" category, of which really there are only a handful of players to chose from.  The likes of Ba, Berbatov and Suarez have continuously come out on top for overall point forcasts.  

That's changed this week, with RVP now among the top 3 points scorers in the game over the next six fixtures.  He's still behind Suarez and Ba though and this is one of the main reasons my projection model is under a tough examination this week.  Other than these guys the usual suspects remain.  Southampton's Rodriguez is a new entry on this list in the bargain bucket section.

Top Points Overall
Suarez, Ba, Van Persie

Top Elite (>£9.5m)
Suarez, Van Persie, Aguero

Top Midprice (£7.5-9.5m)
Ba, Giroud, Jelavic

Top Low Priced (£6-7.5m)
Kone, Crouch, Berbatov

Top Budget (<£6m)
Rodriguez, Di Santo, Rodallega

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Lukaku (2%), Giroud (1%), Kone


Some interesting movement in this list. Much touted Santi Cazorla has maybe had his best chance of points now and has been eclipsed by newcomer to the Buying Guide Steven Gerrard who has been slowly building up an impressive set of stats. Bale and Mata are the other elite options.

I believe Michu's promotion to the striker position and his performances in this role have elevated him to a realtive fixture proof option, for his price at least.  In the lower price ranges I am keen on Hoilett of QPR ahead of two very nice home games.

Top Points Overall
Bale, Gerrard, Mata

Top Elite (>£8m)
Bale, Gerrard, Mata

Top Midprice (£6.5-8m)
Fellaini, Michu, Lennon

Top Low Priced (£5.5-6.5m)
Hoilett, Morrison, Walters

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Hoolahan, Sterling, Taarabt

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Hoilett, Gerrard, Hoolahan



Little real change in this category with the attacking threat posed posed by Baines and Johnson giving them the edge over their peers alongside cheapish routes into the league's best teams.  Recent injuries  to City's backline increase assurance over the likes of Clichy and Zabaleta's gametime. 
Top Points Overall
Baines, Johnson, Evra

Top Elite (>£6m)
Baines, Johnson, Evra

Top Midprice (£5.5-6m)
Clichy, Zabaleta, Rafael/Evans

Top Low Priced (£5-5.5m)
Olsson/Ridgewell, Mertesacker, Huth/Shawcross

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Wilkinson, Baird, Fonte

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Johnson (2%), Zabaleta (2%),  Huth (1%)



  1. If he was guaranteed a start he would be strongly recommended. I've been burnt by him before though... http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/2012/10/gw7-select-xi.html He was in my Buying Guide around this time but now I have to be sure of the start.

  2. I wonder if Chelsea brings him back in January. He is a little reckless, but ridiculously talented. Would love to see him get some consistent playing time.