Wednesday 5 December 2012

GW16 Captain Rankings (Provisional)

GW16 Captain Rankings (double GW players excluded)
GW16 Captain Rankings (double GW players only)

This will be provisional with a s number of european games to play before kick off on Saturday, I'll update it if there's anything significant.

You'll notice that I've split the picks this week into two groups - those players from Sunderland and Reading who have a double gameweek, and those who don't.  I've also added a red flag!  This is to signify that the player, in this case Fletcher and Ba, might be injured and miss a game.  Pretty, eh?  I don't think anyone else is an injury or rotation risk at this moment.

In terms of overall picks, from the non DGW folk, Berbatov gets his second top spot in a row, and this coming after last week's fruitless effort - 2 pts an not even any shots.  How confident am I in this rating?  Hmm.  If you look at his model parameters from the projections page you can see why he is up there.  He accounts for 22% of Fulham's best chances (SoT & SiB)  which is a typical, if slightly low value for a centre forward in the league. His modelled conversion rate is 37%, compared to his actual this season of 38%.  This includes penalties scored which gives him an edge.  

Fulham have struggled in their last few games -  SUN, sto, che, TOT.  Looking at these there's a good explanation for their and Berba's lack of goals.  A very early red card in the Sunderland game, in which they continued to attack heavily in numbers anyway.  Blanks in away games at Stoke and the Benitez's new defensive Chelsea  are not really shock results either.  The only real blip is the Tottenham performance which without an in-depth analysis I can't really comment on, except to suppose Fulham were just outclassed by AVB's team, missing two influential first teamers in Hangeland and Ruiz.

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