Friday 14 December 2012

GW17 Buying Guide

The following players are those projected by the Shots on Target statistical model to score the most points overall in the next six gameweeks in their position and price range.  The selection will not take into account the optimal rotation or transfer strategy so have a gander through the Form and Forecast tables for each position to line up where each players best chance of points comes. 

In addtion check out my new Player Power Rankings for Forwards and for Midfielders.  These list the top 15 players in each position based on their pure goal threat in the "average" fixture,  I will highlight players that are in the top 15 power rankings in blue in this Buying Guide.  Consider them more long term buys as well as short term.

You should check out a recent post on Fulham's forwards before getting as excited about Berbatov as I have.  He doesn't play the same role without Fulham's most creative forward Ruiz in the side.  Still a strong pick though for his money and fixtures.  Van Persie and Aguero hold off strong challenges from Suarez, Rooney and Tevez in the higer echelon's of the guide.

Jermain Defore has moved ahead of Ba and Jelavic has outsted Giroud in the midprice bracket, the latter only now rated by the model as a differential pick.  

Top Points Overall
Van Persie, Berbatov, Aguero

Top Elite (>£9m)

Van Persie, Aguero, Suarez

Top Midpriced (£7.5-9m)
Defoe, Ba, Jelavic

Top Low Price (>£6-7.5m)
Berbatov, Fletcher, Long

Top Budget (<£6m)
Le Fondre, Graham, Di Santo

Top Differential (<5% ownership)
Le Fondre, Giroud, Holt

Top Rotation Options (<£6.5m, best 3 fixtures)
Lukaku, Holt, Lambert


It's very difficult for me to not recommend the top two here in Michu and Fellaini if you are in the market for a midfielder this week, with of course Mata in Japan and Bale probably out injured.  David Silva has to hit some form soon too, right?  I have to mention that Gareth Bale rates as the 5th highest midfielder despite my model ruling him out of the GW17 game - if you want to sell him make plans to get him back.  In the lower price brackets Puncheon is probably the best option for pure points right now but is not a purchase this week as he misses the game unless you have a FT to burn.

Top Points Overall
Michu, Fellaini, Silva

Top Elite (>£8m)
Silva, Cazorla

Top Midprice (£6.5-8m)
Michu, Fellaini, Gervinho

Top Low Price (£5.5-6.5m)
Walters, Pienaar, Sterling

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Gomez, Routledge, Sidwell

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Nasri, Gomez, Gervinho

Top Rotation (<£6.5m and 3 best fixtures)
Gomez, Snodgrass, Morrison

I've marked Zabaleta with a * as frankly the best three defensive options forecast by my model are City's three of Zabaleta, Clichy and Nastasic.  Looking at their playing time, price and stats they are all very equal so take your pick.   A lot is being said of City's defence right now, and as them as a team overall, but they are still one of the league's best teams having the 2nd highest clean sheets so far this season, behind Stoke with 8 and tied on 6 with Chelsea and Arsenal. 

Alongside City are Stoke and Liverpool as the highest rated defence, the latter having the short term fixtures to warrant a purchase right now with either Johnson or Enrique the best options.  Spurs defenders Caulker and Vertonghen have entered the reckoning this week and I like Caulker as a cheap pick myself.

Top Points Overall
Zabaleta*, Johnson, EVra

Top Elite (>£6m)
Johnson, EVra, Baines

Top Midprice (£5.5-6m)
Zabaleta*, Enrique, Skrtel

Top Low Price (£5-5.5m)
Olsson, Distin, Gibbs

Top Budget (<£5m)
Caulker, Shorey, Clark

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Zabaleta*, Johnson, Vertonghen

Top Rotation (<£5m Best 3 fixtures)
Caulker, Shorey, Clark

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