Monday, 10 December 2012

Player Power Rankings - Forwards

When I present the list of suggested players in the weekly Buying Guide the upcoming six fixtures for each player is obviously is a considerable factor in their respective ratings.  I often find myself unsure of a player's "true" worth if you want to evaluate the player over a longer period of time.  To be successful in FPL you need to have successful "season keepers" on top of good rotation through transfers. 

To try and go someway to address this angle below are my "Power Rankings" for Forwards in the Premier League this season.
One way of viewing these rankings is the higher the ranking the more "fixture proof" the player. 

The ranking is determined from the product of the following factors:

  • % Share of Team SoT/SiB (includes only matches where the player played >60 mins)
  • Modelled Goal Conversion
  • Team's League Average SoT/game
The individual values used for each of these factors is listed for all players on the Projections page.  A player must have played over 50% of available minutes this season to qualify (16*90*0.50 = 720minS).  Each of these values are weighted equally at the present time although some tweaking may be in order.

On the chart below are the 15 highest ranked players.  
  • The further to the right a player is the higher his Power Ranking.
  • The higher up the chart the player is the more expensive he costs.
  • The size of the bubble is his ownership value.  Bigger bubble = more owned.
Think small and big pies, and different size slices. 

It's interesting to see a linear relationship between ranking and price for the majority of these players. 

One extra thing to note is this is using the full season's data.  The numbers for a player like Rooney will not be fully representative having played in a less advanced role in earlier games.  I'll try and come up with a "recent form factor".  I'll post rankings for Midfielders tomorrow.

 



3 comments:

  1. great feature, interesting how much the model likes Defoe, but is Giroud safer due to less chance of rotation?

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  2. I had Defoe at the start of the season and took him out around GW4/5 thinking his place was under threat. He's kept playing and kept scoring and it seems Spurs are trying to inc. both strikers. And the thing is, if there is an injury up front for spurs, either Bale, Demps, or Ade, Defoe is straight in. Worth the risk IMO.

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  3. Excellent post..
    But as you've said, recent form factor will considerably change this. Waiting eagarly for that addition...

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