Friday 28 December 2012

GW20 - Select XI, Capt.& Team Rankings

Select XI
 
Captain Rankings

 

Reminder that the F.SCORE portion of the ranking (dark blue) is the player's statistical forecast for his GW20 fixture, the P90 portion (lighter blue) is an additional weighting based on how well the player is doing in actual point scoring per 90 mins played. This is explained more in this post.

There's no arguing with Van Persie's status as the ubiquitous FPL captain pick this season, and for almost £14m you'd hope so too.  When not to captain the Dutchman is probably going to be a key decision this season, especially if he gets rested.  As well as United, Arsenal are the only other team out of the "big"clubs to have a home fixture and if Walcott starts up front again could do well.  Tottenham and Bale are hot property right now but will face a much improved Sunderland side.

Aguero and Tevez continue to prove a frustrating pair to own and travel to in-from Norwich.  The Canaries will need to maintain their recent high levels of performance though to keep City out.

Team Ratings
 

That Man City's away trip to Norwich is my number  one fixtre is indicative of the model not taking recent form into account  The two charts below though do show how actual performances have differed from model's expected results (right click to view full size).  You can see that whilst City did have a poor game against Reading, the performances overall from both teams have been fairly steady and as expected, statistically at least.  I fully expect City to dominate and have plenty of shots on target (I predict 7), whether they'll score 3 or none though who can tell.






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