Thursday 6 December 2012

GW16 Buying Guide

The Buying Guide has been pretty good since it's inception in gameweek 5 if I say so myself..  Whilst highlighting top scoring players like Bale, Ba, Fellaini, Michu and Suarez might not prove all that insightful, the likes of Kone, Morrison, Lallana, Nolan and Sterling were all earmarked for some success early on in their price range and have picked up points. 

Some budget picks like Benteke, Holiett and lately Le Fondre and Shorey would have rewarded investment at the time had a short term transfer been your strategy.  Even the enigma that is Lukaku would have scored you points, despite his rotation.  He has 5 goals now this season, the same as Shane Long and Aguero.

It's not been all plain sailing though of course - Aguero's rotation continues to vex me, Van Persie took a while to cement his place amongst the overall top scorers, and despite a momentary flirt with scoring goals, I am still waiting for Giroud  to score that hat-trick ;).  

What is just as beneficial, if not moreso, are the players I am not identifying - players such as Fletcher, Jelavic, Hazard, Pienaar, Ben Arfa, Yaya Toure and lately Nolan who dropped off the list a few weeks ago, players quite widely held or touted for success at the time but are not producing their points worth.   Basically what I think I am saying is that if they are on my list then they aren't guaranteed points, of course not, but they probably have a better chance of scoring than if not. 

The usual process follows then.  For each position I will highlight the players in each price band whom I have projected to score the most points in total in the next 6 gameweeks.   This does not take into account the optimal rotation or transfer strategy so have a gander through the Form and Forecast tables for each position to line up where each players best chance of points comes.

Reading's Le Fondre stands out a mile here, he's actually got a pretty good scoring record in the lower leageues and has managed 4 goals this season in 700 minutes (8 games worth) racking up an impressive 4 shots per 90 min.  Possibly on penalties too (took the one against Everton).  Certainly an intriguing option especially with Reading's ongoing fixture list after this double.

Suarez's one game suspension sees Tevez take his place in the elite-priced category as Van Persie and Aguero tussle for the overall top spot.  Note that the lack of Suarez this week does not mean he's projected to score badly over the next six (five), it's just he's clearly not a buy option this week.  The usual suspects make up most of the rest of the listing.  The uncertainty over Long and Lukaku's position has forced my to name them both plus Kone as an alternative in the £6.5m region.  I'm still big on Berbatov who's yo-yoing between the low and mid price brackets..  He's my 4th pick for overall points.

Top Overall Points
Van Persie, Le Fondre, Aguero

Top Elite (>£9m)
Van Persie, Aguero, Tevez

Top Midpriced (£7.5-£9m)
Defoe, Ba, Giroud

Top Low Priced (£6-7.5m)
Berbatov, Fletcher, Lukaku/Long (Kone)

Top Budget (<£6m)
Le Fondre, Cisse (QPR), Ruiz

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Le Fondre, Lukaku/Giroud, Kone

Top Rotation (<£6.5m, 3 best fixtures)
Le Fondre, Lukaku, Lambert

Similar to Suarez above, Bale's absence with injury (which I have down in the model for 1 week) means opportunity at the top for others and Fellaini and Michu predictably grab that spot.  Despite their high ownership (these two are the top two owned players now) their price, and  point scored really makes them as essential as it gets.  Having scratched off Bale's GW16 fixture from the projection perhaps I should have exclude Silva too. This would have seen Cazorla move into the top 3.  As it is, both Silva and Bale remain potential top scorers over the next 6 despite a blank.

Further down, there's nothing really special or new to note.  Robson-Kanu makes an interesting option for the DGW with enough of a point forecast over the next six to see him included where other DGW candidates such as Sessegnon are really only a 1 week punt in my book, albeit a decent one. 

Top Points Overall
Fellaini, Michu, Silva

Top Elite (>£8m)
Silva, Cazorla, Bale

Top Midprice (£6.5-8m)
Fellaini,  Michu, Nasri

Top Low Price (£5.5-6.5m)
Walters, Sterling, Taarabt

Top Budget (<£5.5m)
Gomez, Robson-Kanu, Routledge

Top Differential (<5% owned)
Gomez, Robson-Kanu, Nasri

Top Rotation (<£6.5m and 3 best fixtures) 
Robson-Kanu, Gomez, Lallana

Not a great deal of shake-up this week with pretty much the same players here as last week, which is not surprising as we are looking at the players from the best defences in the league (according to my model that is).  I'm still forecast Glen Johnson to pip Enrique in most overall points.  The United pair of Evans and Smalling need monitoring upon the return of Vidic.

I've gone and hedged my bets with the City trio of Zabaleta, Clichy and Nastasic too.  I actually fancy all three of them to be the first choice defence along with Kompany but you never know with Mancini.  If it's any help to you I own Nastasic myself.  I think he, and the others will play often enough over the season and get enough clean sheets to be worth the very affordable £5.6m.

Top Points Overall
Glen Johnson, Enrique, Zabaleta

Top Elite (>£6m)

Johnson, Enrique, Baines

Top Midprice (£5.5-6m)

Zabaleta/Clichy/Nastasic, Skrtel, Evans

Top Low Price (£5-5.5m)

Smalling, Gibbs/Sagna, Olsson

Top Budget (<£5m)

Morrison, Shorey, Rangel

Top Differential (<5% owned)

Johnson, Zabaleta/Nastasic, Agger 

Top Rotation (<£5m Best 3 fixtures)
Shorey, Cuellar, Jones (WBA)


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