Monday, 10 September 2012

Man City : Six Week Points Projection (GW4-9)

I've got all the teams updated with points projection for the next 6 game weeks.  Here's a look at City.  I've tweaked the model a little since I first posted Everton's projections a couple of days ago.  The calculation now takes into account more of a player's underlying stats than just key passes and shots on target, e.g. final 3rd involvement and shots in the box vs. out of the box.  The model will continue to be assessed and refined through the season.

I'm surprised to see Toure come out with such a good forecast.  I had assumed he had just "popped up" with a few goals, rather than been an attacking force, but these projections do not count actual goals scored at all (or assists), just the stats. so he really is in the mix.

Rest of the team's to come in the next day or two, plus the workings under the bonnet of the model.

Also on the agenda this week:  using the projections to forecast a dream team for the coming gameweek, plus one for the next 3 and next 6 gameweeks.

F.SCORE is pretty much expected points multiplied by 10.  Pre-Bonus.

No comments:

Post a Comment