Wednesday, 19 September 2012

GW4: How did I do?

Despite that GW4 is now yesterday's news as all eye's turn to the Champion's League and GW5 I am going to review my FPL team's performance in GW4.  

So, how did I do?  Pretty pants really, with 44 pts, although it could have been worse I suppose.  I dropped from 80K overall to 92K.  I hung on to 3rd spot in my mini-league, although the leader pulled away with goals from Defoe and Suarez, and is now up to 27K overall.  

TEAM: DDG / Cuellar  Demel  Hangeland / Nasri Michu Cazorla Ireland / RVP(C) Tevez Berba
SUBS:  Zabaleta, Federici, BAE, Noble - lots of autosubs this week :(

The F.SCORE for my team continued to show a near perfect correlation with my FPL pts scored as demonstrated in the chart below.  The F.SCORE is a scoring system I have developed to calculate a player's potential to score FPL points.  It’s rather imprecise on an individual player by player basis but when used for your whole squad, and the law of averages has a chance to even itself out, it is looking a very powerful indicator for team selection.

 

There's a problem though, one which I have not yet experienced in my brief 2 year FPL manager career - team decimation.  With the addition of Nasri to the injury list to join BAE and possibly Federici and Cuellar, plus doubts over Zabaleta and DDG's gametime I decided to play my Wildcard.  I had really hoped to play this a\round GW10-11 when the stats had levelled out but thems the punches.  I will see this as a good thing though, my lineup needed a bit of a shift-up anyway.

Last week I also posted a dream team and compared it to a couple of others I found on TOTALFPL.com and fantasyfootballscout.co.uk.  It was a bit of a damp squib GW for most of these teams with RVP not starting.   Overall though Total FPL won this mini-competition with 55pts, FFS came 2nd with  48pts and mine scored 46 with two players making 1 pt sub appearances and two not even featuring at all.  Clearly I need to work on this.  In my defence I  erred on two fronts - selecting Kolarov and Silva and DDG despite obvious risks to their gametime, as well as neglecting to include Rafael in my model who certainly would have been picked in my select XI instead of Kolarov.  So, yeah, onwards and upwards.







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