Wednesday 26 September 2012

GW6 Buying Guide

Short to Mid-Term Transfer Targets (GW 6-11)

I've restructured how I do my buying guide for this gameweek.  Let me know what kind of information you are looking for when you want to make a transfer and I will include it.

At the bottom of this post is a Form Table that includes all the players mentioned in this guide, sorted by Price.  See for yourself their current form, upcoming fixtures and potential form and their 3 week and 6 week rating.  You can also see more of each players stats. on their respective clubs Team Page.

A note on the selections:
The current form indicator (yellow/green in the Form Table) is calculated from an aggregate of key stats during those matches - predominantly minutes played, shots on target and key passes.  The projected form (blue in the table) is determined from the expected number of goal in the fixture and the player's typical involvement in the attacking play (e.g. % of shots taken, etc.).  

At this early stage in the season there could be a few anomalies - Lukaku screams out at you, why is he top points scorer?  Well, although West Brom are not expected to score a tonne of goals, they are in decent form and have two nice fixtures coming up (QPR & Southamton, both at home) and Lukaku, when he has been on the pitch, has dominated their scoring chances.  However his limited minutes so far compared to team mates do mean that his stats have had less time to average out.  Same thing for Mirallas, in less game time he has contributed more attacking play than Jelavic - perhaps he's due some regression.  Still, both are intriguing prospects.  Make of it what you will.

Additionally, if you don't like the look of someone, Tevez say, you can take a look at their form and expect their replacement in the team to score similarly well e.g. Aguero/Dzecko.

Short Term Fix?
GW6 Select XI - Begovic / Baines Gibbs Rafael Johnson / Cazorla Hoilett HBA / RVP Fletcher Mirallas

Don't Forget your Captain Options!


Berbatov and Suarez are showing real potential to score very well over the coming weeks, they're both top world class strikers with incredible goal scoring records.  The number suggest Lukaku and Fletcher will do well too although both have perhaps been a touch fortunate to date and I'm not sure I would buy just yet.

The elite strikers are posing fantasy mangers quite a quandary at the moment with threat of rotation around CL matches and competition for places.  It might be best to just stay clear for now.  If you are in the mood for some risk taking cast your eye over the afore-mentioned Lukaku or Everton's summer signing Kevin Mirallas. Lambert is obviously a solid option if you want a cheap striker.

Top Points Scored
Lukaku (WBA), Berbatov (FUL), Suarez (LIV), Fletcher (SUN)

Top Elite Options (>£9m)
Suarez (LIV), Tevez (MCI), RVP (MUN)

Top Mid-Price Options(£6.5m-£9m)
Berbatov (FUL), Suarez (LIV),Fletcher (SUN), Ba (NEW) Jelavic (EVE)

Top Budget Options (<£6.5m)
 Lukaku (WBA), Lambert (SOT), Rodallega (FUL)

Top Differentials (<5% owned)
Lukaku (WBA) - 2%, Miralllas (EVE) - 0%,Rodallega (FUL) - 1%

If you can tear your eyes away from Eden Hazard (not featured) then look to Santi Cazorla at Arsenal.  He's yet to really grab the fantasy headlines but his time to shine is due.  Bale has shown plenty of threat to earn him a nod in my picks, as has Silva if he gets minutes that is. 
Lower down the price list the usual subjects remain.  If you fancy a punt have a look at Jordi Gomez of Wigan.

Top Points Scored
Cazorla (ARS), Silva (MCI), Bale (TOT)

Top Elite Options (>£8.5m)
Cazorla (ARS), Silva (MCI), Bale (TOT)

Top Mid-Price Options(£5.5m-£8.5m)

Yaya (MCI), Michu (SWA),Nolan (WHM), Fellaini (EVE), Pienaar (EVE)
Top Budget Options (<£5.5m)
Gomez (WIG), Surman (NOR), Kightly (STO)

Top Differentials (<5% owned)
Gomez (WIG) - 1%, Morrison (WBA) - 1%, Snodgrass (NOR) - 1%

Really some clear cut choice here.  Baines is fantasy gold and this is his probably his best run of fixtures all season so if you are partial to an expensive defender then get on board.  After that Gibbs and Rafael represent cut-price ways into Arsenal and United's back four with Arsenal in particular looking very strong defensively with a nice run of fixtures ahead.

If you're looking for someone different consider Glen Johnson.  Liverpool should get some clean sheets over the next 6 games.  They are beginning to click under Rodgers and Johnson is very attack-minded.  Injuries to Kelly and Agger will impact Liverpool's defense but I think they'll cope.

Top Points Scored
Baines (EVE), RafaeL (MUN), Ivanovic (CHE)

Top Elite Options (>£6m)
Baines (EVE), Ivanovic (CHE), Johnson (LIV)

Top Mid-Price Options(£4.5m-6m)
Rafael (MUN), Gibbs (ARS), Williamson (NEW)

Top Budget Options (<£4.5M)
Williamson (NEW), Clark (AVL), Hill (QPR) 

Top Differentials (<5% owned)
Johnson (LIV) - 2%,Williamson (NEW) - 1%, Luiz (CHE) - 3%

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