Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Updated Projections


Just a quick post to say the Projection page for player points has been updated and I have taken a leaf out of Chris Glovers and others book and am now using Tableau Public in order to provide an interactive visualization.

The Projections mainly show a points projection for each player for the next gameweek and the next 10, GW22-31, including the doubles for Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham and Southampton.  I originally displayed a mixture of weekly projections and mixed GW ranges (e.g. 1 week, 3 week, 6 week, etc) but the data just showed the same thing, the players  with the best 3 weeks also with best over 6 week projections.

Each player is colour-coded too.  The colour indicates the player's deviation between the players forecast points and their current FPL points scored per 90 mins.  Those in blue are falling under the line and have scored less points per shots/shots on target, etc.  Those in dark grey have been scoring more, whilst those players picked out in light grey are about average.  


This is a really useful indicator to me.  You can see which players might be due a better run if they get some more luck, or which players it jut might not happen for.  

When picking your players it could be an idea to try not to pick too many players who all fall into the same category here, i.e. all in dark grey or all in blue, as you could be putting too much expectation into just the stats or in prior streaks of good fortune.   In a similar vein, if you are looking to find a few players who represent a calculated gamble you can use this too.

Click Projections to visit the page.

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