Thursday, 10 January 2013

Wildcard Team #5 - The Differentials

After producing some increasingly generic looking wildcard teams in the last week I have been looking forward to taking a look at the alternative players on offer. Today's team will concern only those players with low or relatively low ownership.  For the next post I'll have a team of underachievers too, those players who's stats suggest they should be flying but have not produced the custard.

So on to this team - The Differentials.  Using the optimisation program there are two ways to setup this team.  The first method is to limit the overall ownership as a team to less than 10% on average.  For reference the teams churned out so far have an average ownership of close to 20% with some super-owned players like RVP, Mata, Fellaini, Bale, etc. included.  Let's have a look at this first team:

I should first point out that Rooney and Aguero would both walk into either of these teams if they were not injured right now.



Setup
Budget:  Medium Value £103m (GK - £10m)
Formation:  Any
Restrictions: Average ownership of team < 10%



Comments:
  •  The Goalies, as per all the other teams have been excluded from the optimisation model and I've just gone for DDG as a pure differential
  • The average ownership in this team (exc. GK) is about 9%.  The well owned players are Mata (23%) and  Bale, Walcott, Berbatov (17%, 14%, 12%).  Lambert has the next highest ownership of 11%.  After him everyone is 2-6%. 
  • The optimisation has judged the likes of Mata, Bale and Walcott worthy their ownership numbers.  This is interesting to me.  These guys are projected good points, more than Fellaini, Michu, etc.  and are less owned.  Seem like handy players to own.
  • The bad news is this team is projected a score around 5 pts less a week than the Medium Value team which does not care for differentials.  There's a couple of million left in the bank.



The other method of generating a differential team is to limit the ownership of any one player to 10% ownership.

Setup
Budget:  Medium Value £103m (GK - £10m)
Formation:  Any
Restrictions: Max. ownership of any player = 10%

 

Comments:
  • Very similar defence.  This second team though can afford to upgrade to Glen Johnson.  If you don't like double City check out Spurs (Vertonghen) or Azpilicueta.
  •  I actually love this team.  It's full of players with real potential.  The likes of Silva, Walters, Lennon and Snodgrass have already scored well, but not great.  Same too with Fletcher and Benteke, although less so in comparison with their peers up-front.
  • This team also features some of the stars of my next team - The Under Achievers.  Jelavic in particular has potential to make an impact in the second half of the season.
  • Bad news though... it's point projection is down another 5pts/GW on the team above.
  • The Good News! There is almost a whopping £10m left to upgrade to one or two of the big-hitting players.  Fletcher to RVP/Suarez and Lennon to Bale would tempt my fancy.
Right, I have one more team to do, the Under-Achievers  I'll then post a summary wrap up taking a look at the 6 teams I'll have doen and try to pick out the best of all options.  I also hope to take a more hands-on approach to the optimisation and look at a team not over a flat 10 week projection but a varying gameweek range, with transfers thrown in.  Will see if I have time for that this week.

1 comment:

  1. Great posts. Could you opine a bit on the added value of RVP's consistency? For many weeks I've watched otherwise mediocre squads keep pace solely by RVP (perma c).

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