Rather than come up with one wildcard team I am going to do several teams over the coming days with different objectives in mind - such as a relatively high team value versus low team value, an all-differential team, a team with squad depth, and a team with the focus on the front 7, and so on. I'll also try out a few different formations. For each I'll list the team price and overall ownership plus give a 6 week overview of each player's fixtures. I regret to inform you that I have not built my forecast model to include goalkeepers so I have put aside £10m budget for keepers. I think this is realistic enough.
Optimisation - How It Works
I'm using some software to programmatically optimise the team based on the criteria I input, such as budget, formation restrictions, etc. The program will try every different combination of players within the constraints and give me (and you) the one that yields the most points. For further nerd, read this. One limitaion of this is it's gets too complicated to factor in making any transfers, or rotating combos. To get around this I will aportion sections of the budgets to different sections of the team depending on the desired make-up of the team - e.g. subs, defence, rotating mid/fwd. You'll get the picture once I do a few.
WC Team #1 - Dream Team
This first team is going to be the Dream Team, - no restrictions on formation or even on budget, just to get the ball rolling, Purely academic. I'll be following up with much more practical teams in the very near future.
Set-up:
Budget: Unlimited
Formation: Any
Squad Depth: 10 outfield players only
Projection: 10 weeks, GW22-31
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| Dream Team (10 players). Team Cost = £89.4m Avg %Own = 23% PTS=624 |
- I didn't "pick" the 3-4-3 formation, the optimisation model did. It's the best, or so the forecast would have you believe. I should also note that although I have not analysed this in depth, the model forecasts for defenders is less accurate than for strikers and mids due to the smaller sample sizes involved with defenders (who take less shots overall than forwards), therefore the model over values defenders, particulary those with good attcking stats.
- No Michu - Fellaini is rated slightly better, due to the fixtures.
- The rest of the team speaks for itself I believe.
- To afford this team you'd need to make up the rest of your squad with about £15m, or £3m per player - not possible. If you are canny enough to have a team value (after sales) closer to £110 you may be able to squeeze something in.
Alternative Formations
I wanted to just force the model to pick different formations for the Dream Team first 10, out of curiosity really, so here they are,using the exact same budget as the 3-4-3 team above ...
3-5-2 620PTS 25% owned
Baines Ivanovic Zabaleta / Michu Fellaini Bale Mata Walcott / RVP Ba
4-4-2 609 PTS 23% owned
Baines Ivanovic Zabaleta Gibbs / Mata Bale Walcott Fellaini / RVP Ba
5-3-2 596 PTS 19% owned (edit: removed Fellaini)
Baines Ivanovic Zabaleta Gibbs Enrique / Mata Bale Walcott / RVP Ba
Besides Ba, that is pretty much my dream team as well. I would probably swap Johnson for Ivanovic, presuming you weren't WC'ing until the end of the month. I think Fellaini is a bit better than Michu, but it's close enough that swapping those are pretty much non-issues.
ReplyDeleteUp front, I would move Ba for Aguero even if Ba were staying at Newcastle. At the Bridge, he's almost certainly under rotation threat and Aguero becomes the man.
That would have been my midfield and strikers on my wildcard had it not been for the latest news with Chelsea's DGW and Ba signing :(
ReplyDeleteGood stuff. Agree with SuperGrover on Ba though. I don't see him bettering his performances at Newcastle.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the last one isn't 5-3-2.
Cheers for the pointers guys. Fixed the 3-5-2 team and will be posting another team without Ba as I agree with you all that he's not going to have the same potential now he's at Newcastle.
ReplyDelete