Thursday 28 February 2013

Player Form Charts

For want of a better word, I've launched my new Player Form Charts for Fantasy Premier League.  I love these.  They basically take my projection data to the next level, for want of a better phrase :) 

Through the season my Projections and Buying Guides have been based on a flat 10 week projection, and my F.SCORE Top Player rankings have similarly been based on a range of weeks. This is okay of course.  I'm an advocate of buying a player and keeping him in the team for a series of weeks rather than frantic chopping and changes, plus when I analysed the projections myself the top players over a 10 week range were not much different from those over a 6 week range or even a 3 week range.

One thing I have struggled with though was a way to convey in a neat way was the effect of recent form and of upcoming fixtures on a flat 10 week projection, without providing a raft of potentially confusing metrics and values for multiple different scenarios, player in good/bad form, steady fixtures vs. up and down fixtures, etc.  The overall projection is based on the full season's data but, as you well would expect, a player's performance in GW1 doesn't really have much bearing on Gw28.  Players getting rotated too has been a problem for me, for you too I imagine.

By providing you with the data direct I hope to get over this problem.  The charts show a 10 week form guide and a 10 week forecast.  The charts are interactive (below is just an image!) and the tooltip will show you the values. 

10 Week Form:  this is relative to the player's team and it's calculated by Player F.SCORE / Team's F.SCORE. This basically tells you what share of attacking opportunities the player had and normalises the value against the whole team performance.  

10 Week Projection: Again this is relative, but not for the player vs. team but for the player vs. all other players in the same position in that gameweek.  It's a relative score above (or below) the median score.  This normalise the projections for the individual gameweek.  Some gameweeks are high scoring with the big clubs having tasty home ties, some gameweeks are not so plum   You'll see players like RVP this week with a big negative score - this means I think they won't play.  the number on the right (Sturridge=3.6) is PAM, Points Above Median. the 10 week relative points per gameweek more than the average player.

Read this post for a little more explanation.

Quick Example:  Sturridge  He's my top rated player right now.  Although he's has a small sample (4 games) he's been consistent in each game as you can see from his fairly flat FORM chart.  It's not like he's had one very good game and got a high score. Similarly for Suarez - extremely consistent.

Quick Example:  Aguero  Looking at his recent form he had a real positive rise about 10 to 6 weeks ago, he missed a game after that, but since then has not got back to the kind of form you'd hope for.  Tevez's in the list here despite an on-off last 10 weeks as the overall projection is based on full season form and he's not done badly overall (4th highest scorer).  The form charts though show you that over the last 10 he's not really been playing or firing so buyer beware.

This is just an image.  Click it.

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