Wednesday 5 March 2014

Latest Form and ExpG data updated

I've updated my Expected Goal by Fixture data table with the games from the last weekend. 

Some quick notes:

Chelsea and Newcastle deserve full credit for their goalscoring performances, both achieving the highest expected goals scored . Liverpool too, although to a lesser degree. Everton and Hull appear to have been the two teams which failed to take the chances they created.

Defensively, Everton, Stoke and Crystal Palace limited opposition's chances the most and the first two can say they deserved their clean sheets. Well done Stoke.

10 Week Form (xGR)

If you enter an asterix (*) into the Search Box and then sort the table by clicking on the 10wk GR column header (click twice fro descending order) you'll get the above view. 

xGR is each team's expected goal ratio from the last 10 games. It's calculated by xGfor / (xGfor + xGagainst). I've done a lot of testing over the weekend and it correlates very well with goals and points scored in the present and the future.I'll be posting more on this soon but suffice to say it's an excellent descriptor and predictor of future goals and points (much better than goals and points themselves, and better than xG on it's own. Like i said, more on this coming soon, for now I'll put it forward as a very good indicator of a team's overall ability right now to score goals and win games. 

As you can see from the table City are top trumps with Chelsea leading the chasing pack a little behind. Chelsea's xGDO though (which is my bastardised version of PDO) shows they've been getting results above and beyond that explained by the raw stats. Whether this is due to limits of the model, Mourhno's tactical nous or pure luck who can say. All of the above most likely. However, it does mean that City remain the best team in the league right now. xGDO, just like PDO, regresses to the mean (1.00) and is not sustainable, nor is it an able predictor of things to come.  I'll post a little more on both team's recent performances using data from the tables. Chelsea will have to ride this wave for the remainder of the season if they want to win the league, and hope City don't catch one of their own.I

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