Monday, 20 January 2014

Expected Goals vs. Actual - 2011/12 to present

Since my last post I've been back and grabbed a load more data from 2011/12 to add to the 2012/13 set and current season I've been doing over at insideFPL, as well some adjustments to the model (adding through balls as an assist type for example).

With the extra data I've been able to find out some ace stuff which will follow in the next few days/weeks including some cool player info which goes a long way to explaining why Yaya Toure and Yohan Cabaye are scoring a load of goals this season. Hopefully I can get some of this built into the insideFPL projections and stats before the next gameweek.

For now though here is a quick look at the two and half seasons of data as a complete set and the awesome correlation between expected goals and actual goals. You can read a little extra on expected goals here. 

As you can see there seems to be a bit of a Big Club superiority going on at the high end. This could well be due to Game State, a.k.a. score effects, and said clubs propensity for the odd thrashing and getting runaway results. Game State is not built into the model yet but I have it coded in the data so it's next on the 'to do' list and should be pretty simple.



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