Wednesday 28 August 2013

GW2 Match Centre

These match reports are now done using the new data as described yesterday. I've not yet got the technical stuff sorted out to quickly display the player ratings in a neat way so will just type out the key player's scores this time around. For a more visual experience I advise you to open up GW2 Player Ratings in a new window and use the search box to view each team's player ratings.

As a quick reminder xG (xGoals = Expected Goals) is a totting up of each team's shots and likelihood of a goal based on shot position, assist type, whether it was header or not, and situation. From this individual player xG and xA (xAssist) can be worked out to determine their xPts. Currently this is attacking points only, no appearance points or bonus points.

Fulham 1.0 - 2.4 Arsenal
Fulham tried to attack but just haven't got the quality or team right yet with new signings in key positions although Darren Bent got straight into the danger zones when he came on. Walcott had several good chances. Cazorla's shooting was mostly limited to long-range efforts. Giroud looks good for a 1 goal in 2 games kind of season.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Fulham::Bent (1.5), Taarabt (0.9), Berbatov (0.6)
Arsenal: Walcott (5.1), Cazorla (2.1), Giroud (1.9), Ramsey (1.8)

Aston Villa 0.9 - 0.6 Liverpool
Liverpool got it away with a little here but Rodgers got his tactics right to limit Aston Villa's chances. They wanted a clean sheet and got one, Villa are much better as we've seen on the counter-attack, When  asked to break a team like Liverpool down they lack a real midfield schemer. Benteke is always good for a goal though as is Sturridge. these twos don't need many chances.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Aston Villa: Benteke (1.1)
Liverpool: Enrique (1.4), Sturridge (1.4)

Everton 1.7 - 0.5 WBA
1.7 xG is just the average a home side should get against an average away defence so this is a failed opportunity here for Everton to show they can compete amongst the heights of Premier League goal-scoring. Either that or WBA can defend as well as Chelsea. That Fellaini tops Everton's xPts is an indication of how packed the Baggies penalty box was.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Everton: Fellaini (2.3) Barkley (1.7), Mirallas (1.3)
WBA: Morrison (1.2), Long (1.1)

Cardiff 1.5 - 2.0 Man City
The weekend' highlight and a high scoring game with plenty of chances for both teams, Cardiff equipped themselves really well and if they can match this performance again this week against Everton their attacking players may warrant some interest. This may be a case of complacency for Pellegrini though who had his first taste of how not to defend defending from set pieces in the English game

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Cardiff: Campbell (4.2), Gunnarsson (2.4), Kim (1.1)
Man City: Silva (2.9), Aguero (2.0) Zabaleta (2.0)

Man Utd 1.2 - 0.4 Chelsea
Mourinho set out to stifle and suffocate and managed it with some ease. A real lack of ambition shown going forward for Chelsea should pretty much provide you with Mourinho's intentions this season. He'd be happy winning every game 1-0 and the high cost of players like Hazard will take a dip if he keeps the shackles on. Moyes has to considered be in the same boat though. He's more caution than cavalier.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Man Utd: Rooney (2.1), Van Persie (1.5), Welbeck (1.2)
Chelsea:: Oscar (0.8), Ivanovic (0.8)

Newcastle 1.1 - 0.6 West Ham
Pretty much business as usual for these two team this season. A game of limited chances with plenty of set pieces played into packed penalty boxes. At least Newcaslte showed they can keep a clean sheet which was important for them.  

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Newcastle: Goufrfran (1.7), Marveauz (1.6)
West HamL Morrison (1.3), Nolan (0.7)

Hull 0.4 - 0.6 Norwich
Another game lacking any attacking quality and decided by a penalty goal and shaped by an early red card for Hull. Getting a clean sheet with 10 men and keeping the xG down to deserve it is very impressive. Norwich's new addition's up front do not look like they'll change the Canaries attacking returns away from home.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Hull: Livermore 0.6), Brady (0.6)
Norwich:: Howson (0.8), van Wolfswinkel (0.8)

Stoke 1.5 - 0.9 Crystal Palace
Stoke look like they will go at least go for games this season and Crouch and Adam look half-decent fantasy options at £6m. It's hard to judge Palace yet based on two difficult games but relying on any of their players for your team looks difficult to do.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Stoke: Walters (2.8) Crouch (2.6), Adam (1.7)
Palace: Chamakh (1.0), Moxey (0.9)

Southampton 1.2 - 0.6 Sunderland
Another interesting game in judging the prospects of two teams who are in a state of transition going into this new season. Southampton's attack will have to do a lot better than this if players like Lallana are going to get on our radar. Lambert still looks central to the best parts of their attack. For Sunderland it's too early to write off Johnson or Giaccherini yet but their £7m price tags will be hard to justify.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts) (xPts)
Southamptn: Lambert (2.6), Rodgriguez (1.6)
Sunderland: Dong-Won (1.4), Johnson (0.9), Giaccherini (0.9)

Tottenham 1.6 - 0.4 Swansea
Laudrup's mentality here was similar to other away managers this weekend. Try and get a clean sheet. Swansea did their usual job of preventing any chance of real quality, denying Soldado in particular and allowing Spur's less clinical midfielders the lion share of chances. . Spurs's new-look midfield did look strong defensively but with the Swan's lack of ambition going forward the jury is still out. The Emirate will be a real test.

Top Attack Ratings (xPts)
Spurs: Paulinho (3.7), Dembele (1.8), Chadli (1.6)
Swansea: : Chico (1.0), Shelvey (0.9)

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis, really like the expected scorelines. Looks perfect for some further analysis of which teams are over/under-performing.