Tuesday 8 January 2013

Wildcard Team #3 - Medium Team Value

Following on from team #1, a Dream Team with unlimited budget, and team 2, a team optimised with a low budget of £100m here is a team with an improved budget of £103m.  I hope this is representative of a typical team this season.  I've taken a look through teams in some of the minileagues I'm in and this value seems about average. 

As was the case for those first two teams, I have excluded Goalkeepers as they are not built in to the  model . I have set aside a £10m budget for them.  I have split the team selection into two parts too, the first 10 and 3 subs. The team is built using optimisation software that will try every combination of players to find the team with most points for the dosh.

Set-up:
Budget:  £80m First 10 Outfield Players.  £13m for 3 subs.  £10m reserved for two goalies.
Formation:  Determined by optimisation program
Range:  Based on a 10 week flat points projection.  No transfers or clever strategies!
Double Gameweek Points are factored in.

A-Team
 
 Comments:
  • This team is not too dissimilar to the low value team.  Van Persie is now affordable with  the loss of one very solid defender in Luiz for QPR's Hill. 
  • Hill is a surprise pick, no doubt.  He's £4.3m and obviously rated statistically by my model.  You might prefer someone like another Stoke defender, Demel of West Ham, or someone else.  The point is that the optimisation prefers Van Persie and a budget defender to a cheaper forward and better defender.
  • Walcott, Fellaini, Mata and Bale are becoming ubiquitous in my Wildcard teams, whatever the criteria I input.  Perhaps getting a bit boring.
  • Similarly, Fletcher and Berbatov are two very high value players and as such any team optimisation I do wants to plug them in. 
  • The subs I am not too concerned with in this post.  There are alternatives which I will discuss in a seperate post before the end of this week dedicated to bench players
As noted, there's a bit of repetition creeping in with my Wildcard teams so what I've done for this next team is exclude the 13 players selected above and re-ran the program to give you a look at a B-team.
  •  This is a more rounded team to me, akin to the typical FPL team 
  • Aguero's injury ruled him out of this team  Otherwise he'd come in for Lambert and Cazorla would downgrade to Marveaux.
  • Michu, Hazard and Cazorla are pretty much straight replacements for A-Teamers Fellaini, Mata and Walcott.  
  • Can the front three in this team plus Walters offset the lack of Bale and RVP?  
  • The forecast points difference between the A-team and B-team is actually quite high, approx. 50 pts over 10 weeks.

Which team do you prefer, and why?  Please let me know in the comments.

Still to come this week are a high value team, a differential team, and a team of really wild punts!  Thanks for reading :)


10 comments:

  1. My Wildcard Team , Please do share you inputs.

    Main Team :
    Begovic
    Collins Wilkinson Davies
    Mata Fellaini Michu Bale
    Van Persie Suarez Ba

    Bench : Bunn Marveaux Harte Shaw

    ReplyDelete
  2. I prefer team A but with a punt on Ba for Fletcher due to the DGW. Turner/Davies/Demel would come to mind over Hill but I guess thats where stats and feel differ. Its not great that I have to cut Zab outta my W/C team but I can't really afford to miss this DDGW chance. Would appreciate and input on my current W/C team :

    Begovic, Jaaskelainen

    Azpilicueta, Gibbs, Harte, Davies, Turner

    Bale, Muchi, Mata, Walcott, Fellaini

    RVP, Lambert, Ba

    ReplyDelete
  3. What I don't get is why the model here (and every other fpl-page on the web) is favouring Gibbs over Sagna. Their underlying stats are more or less equal, so you'd expect future returns to be about equal. I just don't see why you'd want to pay 0.5 extra for Gibbs?

    ReplyDelete
  4. @foppaldo - Goal Threat. Gibbs has had 6 shots this season, 5 in the box and 3 on target. Sagna has had none. Check http://www.shotsontarget.co.uk/search/label/Arsenal

    @CDI & Henry - will take a look at your teams in the next 2-3 hrs.

    ReplyDelete
  5. 3 shots on target from half a season would indicate that _if_ Gibbs is as good a finishers as your average forward, you'd expect him to score 1 goal for the rest of the season given the same amount of efforts on target.

    He's already been "well paid" in fpl points with 5 assist from 18 chances created. It's taken players like Silva and Cazorla 50+ chances created to achieve the same number of assists. With a more normal output you're looking at 1-2 assists. (and the same for Sagna)

    I still think that 0.5 premium over Sagna is not backed up by sufficent goal threat to be worth it. And more so considering that historically Sagna has produced about 1 goal + 3 assists a season, while Gibbs mainly have produced sicknotes. :-/

    ReplyDelete
  6. I see your logic, totally. Having taken a closer look at my model parameters as Sagna has not registered a shot this season the model has him at a 0% share of Arsenal's goal threat. Gibbs has 3%. I've altered Sagna's value to give him what Jenkinson had - 1%. Gibbs still comes out the better player. I think in terms of the optimisation program, there's "enough" money left over after filling the team out that the extra £0.5m for Gibbs is worth it.
    I may consider Sagna myself over Gibbs but would be worried that he has not managed a single shot in >900 mins. His chances created are down on Gibbs on a per minute basis too.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Great article as always, but Michu always seems left out. What happens to his prospects if his price is set at 7.5 instead of 8.2 (considering a lot already own him and bought cheap, so would only gain 7.5 from his sale)?

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Great article as always, but Michu always seems left out. What happens to his prospects if his price is set at 7.5 instead of 8.2 (considering a lot already own him and bought cheap, so would only gain 7.5 from his sale)?"

    Good question. I would suspect Fellaini still comes out on top but it would be very, very close.

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Main Team :
    Begovic
    Collins Wilkinson Davies
    Mata Fellaini Michu Bale
    Van Persie Suarez Ba

    Bench : Bunn Marveaux Harte Shaw"

    Questions:

    1. How much money do you have in the bank?

    2. Which players do you have profit on?

    Thoughts:

    1. First thing that jumps out is that backline. You've done a masterful job of getting in a ridiculously strong front 7, but that backline is going to cost you. You are going to have to pick two defenders among West Ham. Swansea, Southampton and Reading each week, an unenviable task. For example, what would be your plans in GW24? Swansea has a good matchup, but who do you start among Harte (v Che), Shaw (@ Man U), and Collins (@ Ful)? You might be looking at a one pointer or worse from a defender, essentially eliminating any advantage you have in the Midfield with Mata over someone like Walcott. I think you need to improve your backline at the expense of one of your big MIDs/FWDs.

    2. I don't see Ba being locked onm so I am presuming you are considering transferring him out after the DGW? People point to Drogba last season but fail to realize that Torres started almost every RPL game last season even with Drogba around (Drogba did start towards the end of the UCL). I would be shocked if Ba plays more than 2 of every 3 games or so and feel he is too expensive at that price to manage that rotation.

    3. Why Collins over O'Brien? Simply due to fitness for the DGW? Othewrwise, I don't see the need for the extra cash on Collins.

    In the end you have all the big hitter on offense, buit I am not sure you can get enough points in the back to support any upward movement. I think you need to consider a cheaper MID/FWD and better defenders.

    ReplyDelete
  10. @SuperGrover :

    I've got Zero Mil left in the bank with the above team.
    The only player I made a profit on was, Jussi.

    Thanks for your inputs. And yes, I chose COLLINS, due to O'Brien's injury..

    I thought the team over again, and here is what is looks like now :
    "Main Team :
    Begovic
    Cuellar Cameron Davies
    Mata Fellaini Michu Bale
    Van Persie Berbatov Aguero

    Bench : Bunn Marveaux Harte Jones(WBA)"

    Any suggestions are welcome.

    Questions from myside :

    1. What is your opinion on Dzeko, and how many more consecutive games do you see him playing.
    2. As Adebayor will be leaving for the AFC, how does this change Defoe's value.
    3. And finally, If you had to pick between Giroud and Podolski, whom would you choose...

    ReplyDelete