Site Updates - Fixture Strength
The Fixture Strength page has been updated for Gameweeks 11 through to 16. I have now added a fixture strength from a defensive perspective. This may need some tweaks going forward but is still a useful indicator. Right click for larger images.
To clarify, this is based upon the team's expected performance and not necessarily how tough the upcoming opponent is, correct?
ReplyDeleteI will update the main post with an example.
ReplyDeleteAs an example of how this is worked out I'll give you the underlying numbers for United's first game away at Villa:
ReplyDeleteFor SoT Utd are currently rated at 1.2 SD above the mean away from home (5.3) whilst Villa are above average defense at home, 0.6SD better than the mean. Combining the SD gives Utd an SoT attack rating of +0.6 SD above the mean. The mean SoT for the league's away team is 4 and SD is 1.8, so I estimate Utd will have ~5 SoT. From this I expect them to convert 40% of chances at current rate.
They are currently converting SoT away from home at >50%. This is regressed to approx. 40%. at this stage of the season. Villa at home are letting through goals form 25% of SoT. These two conversion factors averaged out give Utd a 33% conversion factor at Villa, and hence an estimated ~1.7 goals. Greater than 1.75 G counts as "Good" in the matrix. This is all still a work in progress really, but it's getting there.